Here are the latest national Covid-19 trends, according to the CDC and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- New hospital admissions with Covid-19 have increased 20%, from 4,100 admissions per day during the week ending December 23 to 5,000 admissions per day during the week ending December 30.
- Test positivity has decreased 1%, from 12.5% of Covid-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending December 23 to 12.4% of positive tests during the week ending December 30.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have increased 9% between the week ending December 23 and the week ending December 30.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 17% between the week ending December 23 and the week ending December 30, and the national wastewater viral activity level is very high, per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 22% between December 23 and December 30, per Biobot Analytics.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 5% between December 25 and January 1, per WastewaterSCAN.
All available Covid-19 data in the U.S. suggest that the country is at the high point of an intense winter surge. The JN.1 variant, the latest fast-spreading offshoot of Omicron, has intensified the spread from holiday travel and gatherings. Hospitalizations are currently following similar trends to last winter, but could rise more in the coming weeks.
Wastewater surveillance from the three major data providers (the CDC, Biobot Analytics, and WastewaterSCAN) all suggest that SARS-CoV-2 levels in U.S. sewage are the highest recorded since the first Omicron wave, in winter 2021-22. All regions of the country are reporting similar trends, though the Midwest and Northeast appear to have higher peaks than the West and South.
Based on those wastewater data, you might see estimates going around on social media suggesting that 1-2 million Americans are getting infected every day. I would recommend taking those numbers with a grain of salt, as SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater are not a perfect proxy for cases and models based on these levels are very much a work in progress. I wrote more about this here, and may follow up with a more in-depth article if there’s interest.
Still, while it’s tough to estimate exactly how many people are getting infected with the coronavirus right now, the overall trend is clear: there is an incredible amount of Covid-19 going around right now. Millions will get sick in the coming weeks, as this surge continues. And every infection has a risk of Long Covid — one outcome that our health system continues to barely track at all.
In contrast to the sky-high wastewater levels, hospitalizations are currently trending similarly to past winter surges, with fewer new admissions per week than at this time last year. Hospitalizations are likely to continue rising in the coming weeks, though, as this is a delayed indicator compared to wastewater. Other viruses — primarily flu and RSV — are also putting pressure on hospitals right now. Many hospitals across the country have reinstated mask mandates due to the surges.
One culprit for the current surge is JN.1, a variant that has circulated widely around the world in recent months. According to the CDC’s latest estimates, JN.1 caused between half and two-thirds of new Covid-19 cases in the U.S. between December 23 and January 6. There are conflicting findings about whether this variant may cause more severe symptoms, and research is ongoing. But as usual, it’s tough to track how JN.1 may impact risk of Long Covid.
Covid-19 data tend to be particularly unreliable right after holidays as public health officials catch up from their breaks. This winter’s surge may be the toughest to track yet, thanks to fewer resources going into monitoring following the end of the federal public health emergency. But even without precise numbers, we know that many people are getting sick right now — and many of those cases could be preventable.
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