Here are the latest national Covid-19 trends, according to the CDC and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- New hospital admissions with Covid-19 have increased 3%, from 5,000 admissions per day during the week ending December 30 to 5,100 admissions per day during the week ending January 6.
- Test positivity has decreased 1%, from 12.8% of Covid-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending December 30 to 12.7% of tests during the week ending January 6.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have decreased 16% between the week ending December 30 and the week ending January 6.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 5% between the week ending December 30 and the week ending January 6, and the national wastewater viral activity level is very high, per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 5% between December 30 and January 6, per Biobot Analytics.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 5% between January 1 and January 8, per WastewaterSCAN.
Multiple data sources suggest that the U.S.’s current Covid-19 surge may have peaked, with wastewater surveillance and healthcare system metrics showing potential declines in disease spread. But slight declines still leave us with incredibly high levels of SARS-CoV-2 across the country, along with other less-deadly viruses.
National trends from the CDC and Biobot Analytics both suggest coronavirus levels in wastewater stayed about the same or declined slightly in the first week of January compared to the prior week, after sharp increases throughout December. WastewaterSCAN, which is currently providing more frequent and less delayed updates than the other two dashboards, shows a decline from December 27 through January 9.
These wastewater data are preliminary, as national trends can be retroactively updated when data become available from more sewage testing sites. Still, it’s helpful that trends from all three dashboards point in the same direction. Regionally, the South and West Coast are reporting increased coronavirus levels — catching up to the Northeast and Midwest, which were harder hit at the start of this surge.
Data from the healthcare system similarly suggest that the surge might be slowing. New hospital admissions only increased by 3% during the week ending January 6, after much sharper increases in December. Test positivity (from the CDC’s lab testing network) and emergency department visits for Covid-19 reported slight declines in the same week. If future weeks of data show this trend continuing, it would be good news, with hospital admissions peaking below last winter’s highest levels.
The CDC’s flu surveillance suggests a potential decline in that virus’ spread, as well, with drops in doctor’s visits for respiratory illness and in positive lab tests for influenza reported during the week ending January 6. “A single week of decrease has been noted,” CDC scientists wrote in this week’s flu update, adding that the agency “will continue to monitor for a second period of increased influenza activity that often occurs after the winter holidays.”
Mainstream media articles in the last week have expressed skepticism that this winter’s surge is truly the country’s “second biggest.” While I agree that wastewater results can’t be translated directly to infections, these articles hide the main message people should get from our current data: there is a massive amount of a potentially deadly, disabling virus going around right now, and people should take precautions. About 10,000 people died preventable Covid-19 deaths around the world in December, according to the World Health Organization.
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