Here are the latest national Covid-19 trends, according to the CDC and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- New hospital admissions with Covid-19 have decreased 14%, from 2,200 admissions per day during the week ending March 2 to 1,900 admissions per day during the week ending March 9.
- Test positivity has decreased 22%, from 6.7% of Covid-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending March 2 to 5.2% of tests during the week ending March 9.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have decreased 9% between the week ending March 2 and the week ending March 9.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 28% between the week ending March 2 and the week ending March 9, and the national wastewater viral activity level is low, per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 1% between March 9 and March 16, per Biobot Analytics.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 17% between March 4 and March 11, per WastewaterSCAN.
Most national Covid-19 metrics point to continued slow declines in disease spread across the U.S. While the country is inching toward a lower-risk spring, levels of SARS-CoV-2 and other common viruses are still high in some places, particularly in the South and Midwest.
There’s some contradiction among the major wastewater data dashboards this week. The CDC’s analysis shows significant declines in coronavirus activity in wastewater both nationally and for all four regions, enough that the agency has moved its national viral activity level from “moderate” to “low.” WastewaterSCAN also reports consistent declines in SARS-CoV-2 spread over the last month.
Biobot Analytics, however, suggests that coronavirus spread may have once again plateaued, reporting a 1% increase in national viral activity in mid-March. The company also reports that SARS-CoV-2 levels are higher now than at this time last year, in contrast to the CDC, which reports lower levels now than in March 2023. As I’ve explained before, these different wastewater dashboards represent different sampling sites and scientific methods for testing and analysis, which can sometimes lead to discrepancies; we’ll have to wait for future data updates to better understand what’s going on.
Biobot’s data suggest the national plateau in coronavirus spread may be driven by an increase in the Midwest. No other data sources are reporting increased Covid-19 in the Midwest right now, but the CDC’s map of wastewater levels by state does report higher coronavirus in several Midwest states (as well as in the South) than other parts of the country. The CDC reports high Covid-19 in: Missouri, Arkansas, Minnesota, Illinois, Alabama, North Carolina, and Virginia.
Meanwhile, healthcare system metrics show a slow decline in Covid-19 spread similar to the CDC and WWSCAN wastewater data. New hospital admissions, test positivity, and emergency department visits have all declined steadily in the last month. Flu and related respiratory viruses are trending down too, per the CDC, though like with Covid-19, several Midwest and South states report high levels of influenza-like illness.
A recent survey from the Pew Research Center finds that, contrary to mainstream media and political leaders’ portrayals of Covid-19, many Americans still care about taking precautions against this disease. More than half of the survey’s respondents said they remain concerned about unknowingly spreading Covid-19 to others, with higher concerns among Black, Hispanic, and Asian respondents compared to white respondents. Half of the respondents also said it’s “extremely or very important” for medical professionals to understand and treat Long Covid.
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