Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1.6 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending November 2. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- COVID-19 test positivity has decreased 23%, from 4.7% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending November 2 to 3.6% of tests during the week ending November 9.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 14% between the week ending November 2 and the week ending November 9, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 4% between October 30 and November 6, and the national wastewater trend is “low,” per WastewaterSCAN,
COVID-19 levels are much lower than normal for this time of year as the U.S. remains in a plateau between surges — though note that lower than normal still means much higher than the true lows we experienced earlier in the pandemic. Meanwhile, respiratory viruses like flu and RSV are starting to pick up. While these seasonal viruses are less likely to cause severe outcomes than COVID-19, they are still worth precautions, especially as H5N1 continues to spread.
Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all indicate that national SARS-CoV-2 levels are in a moderate-to-low position and have not moved significantly in the last month. WastewaterSCAN’s national average of viral levels in sewage, for example, has decreased by only 7% between October 16 and November 6; and the current average is less than half what WastewaterSCAN reported in early November 2023.
Hospitalization data from the CDC show a similar picture. The rate of new emergency department visits attributed to COVID-19 for the week ending November 9, 2024 is about one-third the rate for November 11, 2023 (0.5% vs. 1.5%). And the current rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 people is less than half the rate from early November 2023 (1.6 vs. 4.1 per 100,00 people).
The Midwest currently reports higher coronavirus spread than other regions, per the CDC and WastewaterSCAN. The CDC reported a slight increase in this region last week, but it leveled off in the most recent data update. Infections are “growing” in Minnesota and “likely growing” in California and Arizona as of November 12, per the agency’s state-by-state epidemic forecasts; infections are declining or not changing in other states.
The current plateau is good news, as experts like J.P. Weiland suggest that this winter’s (still anticipated) surge may be lower than in past years. Less competitive variants — current competitor XEC is growing, but not that fast — and the higher-than-average summer surge this year may have played a role. Still, over 100,000 people are likely infected each day even in these lower-risk periods. Public health experts like those at the People’s CDC recommend continuing to mask, test, and take other precautions during this time.
Another good reason to keep masking: respiratory virus season is starting, as flu and RSV cases are beginning to increase in the U.S. H5N1 also remains on the horizon, as health officials in Canada seek to better understand how a teenager from British Columbia recently contracted the virus and became severely sick (notably, the teen was infected with a different strain from the one circulating in U.S. dairy cows).
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