Here are the latest national Covid-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1 in every 100,000 people was hospitalized for Covid-19 during the week ending June 15. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- Covid-19 test positivity has increased 22%, from 5.4% of Covid-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending June 8 to 6.6% of tests during the week ending June 15.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have decreased 6% between the week ending June 8 and the week ending June 15, and these visits are below the baseline for respiratory virus season.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 12% between the week ending June 8 and the week ending June 15, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 10% between the week of June 10 and the week of June 17, per Biobot Analytics.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 25% between June 10 and June 17, per WastewaterSCAN.
Our annual summer Covid-19 wave continues in the U.S., with metrics showing increased viral levels in wastewater, more people testing positive, and more emergency department visits. SARS-CoV-2 levels may be leveling off on the West Coast after going up for several weeks, but other regions are now reporting increases.
While Biobot Analytics reports a slight decline in national coronavirus levels last week, the other two major wastewater surveillance dashboards (the CDC and WastewaterSCAN) both report continued increases. The CDC claims national viral levels are still “low,” but it’s important to remember that the agency’s method for calculating these levels starts with a high baseline. According to WWSCAN, current levels are over ten times higher than the lows reported in spring 2021.
Data from WWSCAN and Biobot suggest that coronavirus levels on the West Coast may be reaching a plateau or even starting to decline, though they are still very high and these data are preliminary; we’ll need to see if this trend holds in the coming weeks. WWSCAN’s data for California shows a potential major increase from June 17 to 18, which could be an outlier or an indicator of renewed spread. (I always treat the most recent week of data as tentative and subject to change.)
In other regions, however, SARS-CoV-2 levels are clearly increasing. The CDC and WWSCAN both point to the Northeast and South as areas reporting more coronavirus spread, while the Midwest is at a lower plateau. States with “very high” coronavirus levels, according to the CDC, include Alaska, Hawaii, New Mexico, Florida, and Connecticut. Wastewater testing is fairly uneven, though, so other states with less testing could be experiencing similar levels but failing to identify the surge.
New variants continue to drive this summer’s Covid-19 spread, as the CDC’s latest estimates show FLiRT lineages (KP.3, KP.2, LB.1, KP.1.1) accounting for the vast majority of new infections between June 9 and June 22. The same variants are also driving increased Covid-19 spread in other parts of the world, but many countries are no longer reporting Covid-19 cases and deaths, making it difficult to track the disease’s continued impact.
Reporting is limited in the U.S., too, as many data systems have been dismantled following the end of the federal public health emergency last year. But we have enough information to see that, even as health officials insist on comparing SARS-CoV-2 to seasonal viruses like the flu and RSV, Covid-19 has a far greater impact. Right now, the flu and RSV are circulating at very low levels while the coronavirus keeps on rising, driven by the virus’ continued evolution and our lack of collective mitigations.
Leave a Reply