National Covid-19 trends, December 12

Here are the latest national Covid-19 trends, according to the CDC and major wastewater surveillance providers:

• New hospital admissions with Covid-19 have increased 18%, from 2,700 admissions per day during the week ending November 25 to 3,200 admissions per day during the week ending December 2.
• Test positivity has increased 8%, from 10.6% of Covid-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending November 25 to 11.5% of positive tests during the week ending December 2.
• Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have increased 2% between the week ending November 25 and the week ending December 2.
• SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 29% between the week ending November 25 and the week ending December 2, and the national wastewater viral activity level is high, per the CDC.
• SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 7% between November 29 and December 6, per Biobot Analytics.
• SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 9% between November 29 and December 6, per WastewaterSCAN.

Both Covid-19 and respiratory virus season metrics point to ongoing increases in disease spread across the country, though some regions (particularly the Midwest) are seeing more SARS-CoV-2 infections than others right now. The federal government continues to take insufficient responses to Covid-19 and other common diseases.

New national metrics from the CDC’s wastewater surveillance system show a significant jump in SARS-CoV-2 activity in wastewater during the week after Thanksgiving. The national viral activity level increased by nearly 30% and reached a level not seen since last winter’s surge. While the CDC cautions that data from the last two weeks are preliminary due to reporting delays, this jump is in line with what we’d expect given holiday gatherings and variant activity.

Our other two national wastewater surveillance dashboards, from Biobot Analytics and WastewaterSCAN, both show national SARS-CoV-2 activity leveling off — though remaining quite high — in the last week. The differences between dashboards may reflect a delay in data reporting on the CDC’s end (remember, Biobot’s dashboard showed a jump of similar magnitude last week), along with regional differences (WastewaterSCAN has more sites in California than the other two dashboards, for example).

Regionally: Covid-19 activity is clearly highest in the Midwest, followed by the Northeast. These two regions have high coronavirus levels in wastewater (according to all three dashboards) along with increasing hospitalizations. In the Midwest, most states have “high” or “very high” coronavirus levels right now, per the CDC. 

In addition to holiday travel, a recent variant called JN.1 is driving many new infections in the U.S. and other countries. The CDC’s most recent estimates attributed about one in five infections to this variant, during the two weeks ending on December 9. Eric Topol explains why this variant is outcompeting others in a recent edition of his newsletter.

Covid-19 hospitalizations and test positivity are also going up nationally, while influenza-like activity (a measure that can include Covid-19 along with flu and other respiratory viruses) is trending up as well. Influenza-like activity is particularly high in the South, where most states are ranked “high” or “very high” by the CDC due to many doctors’ visits for flu-like symptoms.

While we’re seeing more respiratory illness from several viruses right now, Covid-19 still causes the most hospitalizations and long-term symptoms. The federal government has responded to this health threat with, mostly, poorly-funded and poorly-advertised programs, like its recent expansion of the Home Test to Treat program.