National Covid-19 trends, February 27

Here are the latest national Covid-19 trends, according to the CDC and major wastewater surveillance providers:

• New hospital admissions with Covid-19 have decreased 6%, from 2,900 admissions per day during the week ending February 10 to 2,700 admissions per day during the week ending February 17.
• Test positivity has decreased 14%, from 9.4% of Covid-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending February 10 to 8.1% of tests during the week ending February 17.
• Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have decreased 1% between the week ending February 10 and the week ending February 17.
• SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 3% between the week ending February 10 and the week ending February 17, and the national wastewater viral activity level is high, per the CDC.
• SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 16% between February 12 and February 19, per WastewaterSCAN.

The U.S.’s winter Covid-19 surge continues to drag on, with wastewater surveillance reporting high levels even as we head into March and relatively slow declines in hospitalizations. While this surge will surely lead to Long Covid, this result will be tough to track thanks to the abandonment of testing and relatively limited tracking efforts from health agencies.

Wastewater surveillance data from the CDC point to very high and steady SARS-CoV-2 levels in the South, with similar (though lower) plateaus in the Northeast and Midwest and a decline on the West Coast. Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana all report very high levels of the virus in their sewage, though it’s important to note that some states in other regions marked as “moderate” or “low” on the CDC map have relatively few testing sites (eg. Wyoming only has two, compared to 116 in New York).

WastewaterSCAN’s dashboard reports a plateau in coronavirus spread in the South and plateaus or slow declines in other regions, with the lowest viral levels on the West Coast. Biobot Analytics hasn’t updated their dashboard yet for this week; the company’s most recent data show a slight increase in national viral levels from late January through February 17.

Hospital admissions with Covid-19, as reported by the CDC, are also going down slowly. This metric declined by just 25% in the last month, from about 3,700 admissions per day in the week ending January 20 to 2,700 admissions per day in the week ending February 17. Hospitalizations and test positivity are similarly higher in the South than in other regions.

The CDC’s flu surveillance reports a plateau in the spread of this disease, too; doctor’s visits for influenza-like illness have barely changed in the last month. One reason for the flu plateau could be increased spread of different influenza variants, similar to what we see with Covid-19. But behavior clearly plays a big role, too — more indoor gatherings without masks help flu to spread just as they help SARS-CoV-2.

Last Friday, a CDC team focused on respiratory diseases published a report about the “changing threat of COVID-19,” suggesting that this disease is now less of a concern than it was in prior winters due to lower hospitalizations and deaths. However, the report completely fails to mention Long Covid — the severe Covid-19 outcome that may be most common at this point in the pandemic. It also fails to address research showing that Covid-19 is not, in fact, a respiratory disease but is multisystemic, impacting every organ system. Without properly addressing and tracking Long Covid, the CDC fails to accurately alert Americans about their potential risks.