Here are the latest national Covid-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 3 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for Covid-19 during the week ending July 13. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- Covid-19 test positivity has increased 10%, from 13% of Covid-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending July 13 to 14.3% of tests during the week ending July 20.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 1% between the week ending July 13 and the week ending July 20, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “high,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 11% between the week of July 15 and the week of July 22, per Biobot Analytics.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 7% between July 13 and July 20, per WastewaterSCAN.
Our summer Covid-19 surge continues in the U.S., with wastewater surveillance and our limited testing data reporting high disease levels across the country. Reports from multiple wastewater data providers suggest that the disease is spreading at similar levels to or higher than the peak of last summer’s wave, even as mainstream media, government agencies, and major event organizers continue to downplay this threat.
High SARS-CoV-2 concentrations persist in our wastewater nationally, according to the CDC, Biobot, and WastewaterSCAN. WastewaterSCAN’s data suggest that current viral levels are about 30% higher than the peak of last summer’s surge, while Biobot and the CDC report that current levels are close to last year’s peak.
As I explained last week, these three dashboards share results from different groups of testing sites and have different methods for analyzing and processing data; the CDC’s method may downplay a current surge by comparing test results to recent baselines.
Covid-19 spread might be finally declining on the West Coast, which was hit early and intensely this summer. The CDC reports a slight decline in coronavirus levels in wastewater for this region, as well as decines in Covid-related hospitalizations in California and Oregon. Biobot reports continued coronavirus increases in West Coast wastewater while WWSCAN reports a high plateau, though, so I will be skeptical about this potential turnaround until we see another week or two of data.
Test positivity is also high and increasing, according to the network of PCR testing labs still reporting to the CDC. Nationally, 14.3% of Covid-19 tests processed by this network were positive in the week ending July 20. For the healthcare region including California, Arizona, Hawaii, and Nevada, it’s 18.1%; and for the region including Texas, Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and New Mexico, it’s 23.4%.
According to the CDC’s forecasting center, Covid-19 infections are “growing or likely growing” in 36 states and territories, including states across all regions of the country. Infections are “likely declining” in just one state, Hawaii, per the CDC’s estimates. This trend matches the CDC’s state-level wastewater data, which shows “high” or “very high” SARS-CoV-2 viral activity levels in 38 states.
Like the U.S., Europe is facing a Covid-19 surge this summer, fueled by summer travel and gatherings — including the Olympics, which kicked off last week in Paris. Without collective Covid-19 precautions, this international event may become a super-spreader event leading to many Long Covid cases, a group of concerned Olympics volunteers warned earlier this month.
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