Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1.9 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending October 26. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- COVID-19 test positivity has decreased 4%, from 5.0% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending October 26 to 4.8% of tests during the week ending November 2.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 4% between the week ending October 26 and the week ending November 2, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 1% between October 23 and October 30, and the national wastewater trend is “low,” per WastewaterSCAN,
Our moderate lull between surges continues. COVID-19 levels in the U.S. remain lower than typical for this time of year — though still much higher than the true lows in 2020-2021. While the expected winter wave has not picked up yet, it remains important to take precautions against SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses, particularly as H5N1 continues to spread.
Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all indicate that coronavirus spread has remained at moderate levels and relatively consistent over the last couple of weeks. The CDC’s national average of SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater has dropped by just 6% in the last two weeks of available data, and the average from WastewaterSCAN has dropped by under 1%.
This current plateau remains at about half the SARS-CoV-2 level at this time last year, according to both wastewater data sources. But it is still several times higher than what I consider the true lows of COVID-19 spread earlier in the pandemic, such as after initial vaccinations in spring 2021.
At the regional level, infections are starting to increase in parts of the Midwest and Northeast, according to wastewater and some healthcare system data. The CDC’s state-level modeling estimates report that infections are “likely growing” in Pennsylvania, Indiana, and Arizona, and either declining or not changing in all other states, as of November 5.
The Midwest and Northeast tend to see cases increase for the winter earlier than the rest of the country, thanks to colder weather driving more indoor gatherings. Variants usually also play a role, but XEC — the latest variant of concern — is spreading somewhat more slowly than other, past competitive lineages. It caused around 30% of new infections between October 26 and November 9, per CDC estimates.
While COVID-19 remains at more moderate levels, the avian flu H5N1 continues to spread in dairy farms. A recent CDC study found that, across 115 dairy workers tested for H5N1 antibodies, eight were positive — indicating infections are more widespread than has been reported. The Canadian government also just reported a suspected case there, in a teenager from British Columbia. Plus, WastewaterSCAN has identified H5N1 spreading in Los Angeles and several other California cities; it’s unclear at this time whether these sewage data indicate disease in humans, animals, or both.
Health officials continue to say the risk to the general public from H5N1 is low — people who work with animals are at more risk — but these ongoing infections offer another reason to continue masking and taking other precautions.
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