Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1.4 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending November 23. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- COVID-19 test positivity has decreased 9%, from 4.4% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending November 23 to 4.0% of tests during the week ending November 16.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 6% between the week ending November 23 and the week ending November 30, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 18% between November 20 and November 27, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have increased 9% between the week ending November 23 and the week ending November 30, and this metric has passed the threshold for flu season.
The U.S.’s winter COVID-19 surge is underway, particularly in the Midwest and Northeast. While infections are increasing, current disease levels remain much lower than typical for this time of year, indicating that we are likely to see a less intense surge than in the last couple of winters. Other pathogens are spreading right now, too.
Wastewater data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN offer conflicting pictures of the current COVID-19 landscape. The CDC reports national SARS-CoV-2 levels are still in a moderate plateau as of November 30, while WWSCAN reports a sharp increase as of November 27. This mismatch is likely a result of different reporting timeframes and testing sites (in particular, the CDC’s data analysis process often makes SARS-CoV-2 levels appear lower than they really are); you can read more about the distinctions in my explainer from this summer.
Healthcare system data also indicate that COVID-19 cases have started to increase nationally. Emergency department visits for COVID-19 have gone up for two weeks in a row as of November 30, according to the CDC. The CDC’s test positivity rate hasn’t increased much yet, but Walgreens’ testing data (which reflect tests taken at the pharmacy chain’s locations) show an uptick in early December. Patient numbers inside hospitals remain low, but are expected to increase as cases continue to go up.
The CDC’s forecasting center, which primarily uses emergency department visits for its estimates, similarly reports that COVID-19 cases are increasing nationally as of December 3. Infections are “growing or likely growing” in 28 states, according to the center, with many of those states located in the Midwest or Northeast. States with the highest estimated growth rates include: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Iowa, Kentucky, North Carolina, Virginia, Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois, Massachusetts, Oklahoma, New York, Florida, Ohio, Colorado.
This regional trend also comes through in wastewater data. The CDC’s wastewater dashboard reports high levels across the Midwest, as well as a handful of other states (New Mexico, Arizona, New Hampshire). WastewaterSCAN reports high levels for the Midwest and a recent increase in the Northeast. Other viruses are also spreading right now, according to WWSCAN, including flu, RSV, and norovirus.
Modeler J.P. Weiland predicted in a recent Twitter/X post that this winter, we may see “an abnormally good holiday season” for COVID-19 transmission, based on the current lower-than-expected levels and a lack of highly active variants. Still, it’s important to remember that even “lower” periods still mean many thousands of infections daily — and every infection can lead to severe symptoms, new disability, or worse baselines for people already living with Long COVID and other chronic diseases. Keep masking up!
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