National COVID-19 trends, May 27

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May 27, 2025

A map of the U.S. by state, with states color-coded according to estimates of recent COVID-19 trends. Text above the map reads: "COVID-19: As of May 20, 2025, we estimate that COVID-19 infections are growing or likely growing in 4 states, declining or likely declining in 18 states, and not changing in 21 states." There are four states colored in light purple (for "likely growing") or dark purple (for "growing"): Washington, Louisiana, Mississippi, Florida. 18 states are colored in shades of teal for "declining or likely declining," and 21 states are colored in gray for "not changing." A few remaining states are colored in white for "not estimated."

Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:

About 0.9 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending May 10.
COVID-19 test positivity declined slightly, from 3% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending May 10 to 2.8% during the week ending May 17.
SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 1% between the week ending May 10 and the week ending May 17, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 5% between May 7 and May 14, and the national wastewater trend is “low,” per WastewaterSCAN.

While national COVID-19 metrics continue to report slight declines, multiple weeks of increased spread in some parts of the U.S. (particularly on the West Coast) suggest we are getting closer to a summer wave. Plus, the latest available data are from before Memorial Day weekend, which tends to be the start of summer travel and large gatherings.

Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all report slight decreases in national average SARS-CoV-2 levels in sewage in mid-May. WWSCAN actually changed its national wastewater trend to “low” from “medium” this week, which I find notable as WWSCAN’s categories tend to be closer to what I would call actually low levels than the CDC’s.

Trends for the West Coast, however, are more concerning. The CDC, WWSCAN, and Biobot all report increased SARS-CoV-2 levels in this region in recent weeks. COVID-19 test positivity is also increasing for some West Coast states, per the CDC. There are additional signals of potential increased SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater for the South (per the CDC) and Northeast (per WWSCAN).

The CDC’s disease forecasting center estimates that COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in four states, as of May 20: Washington, Georgia, Florida, and Louisiana. Cases are “declining or likely declining in 18 states” and “not changing in 21 states,” per the center.

Memorial Day weekend, which just passed, is one of those holidays that can contribute to new COVID-19 outbreaks as people travel and gather. But we won’t see those outbreaks in the data for another week or two, as all our COVID-19 data now are reported with delays. The CDC’s latest variant estimates are also delayed, leaving us with a less complete picture of how much new variants (XFG, XFC, NB.1.8.1) are currently spreading.

Meanwhile, thousands of people stepped up to send the Food & Drug Administration (FDA) comments last week, after FDA officials announced new restrictions on COVID-19 vaccines for this fall. Threats to vaccines continue: just this morning, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. announced the CDC will no longer recommend COVID-19 shots for “healthy children and healthy pregnant women,” contradicting prior research and recommendations showing that vaccination during pregnancy can reduce risks for both parents and children. The Sick Times will continue to look out for and amplify opportunities for advocacy on this vital issue.