Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 0.7 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending November 29.
- COVID-19 test positivity moderately increased, with 3.1% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending November 29 and 3.6% positive during the week ending December 6.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 62% between November 29 and December 6, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 7% between November 26 and December 3, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness increased 10% between the week ending November 29 and the week ending December 6, and this metric has passed the level indicating the official start of flu season.
After a couple of weeks of uneven increases, COVID-19 spread is now clearly going up in the U.S. across most major metrics and most regions. Since the latest data are from early December, COVID-19 levels are likely much higher now in many places.
Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics show increasing SARS-CoV-2 levels at sewage testing sites around the country in the first week of December. All three sources report increases in their national averages and for the Northeast, Midwest, and (to a lesser extent) the South. Biobot also reports increasing levels in the West, while the CDC and WWSCAN report a plateau for that region.
Last week, I was skeptical about the CDC’s report of declining SARS-CoV-2 levels in the Northeast’s wastewater. Indeed, the agency now reports that the Northeast’s regional wastewater viral activity level more than doubled between November 29 and December 6. These are still preliminary data, though, and the vast majority of sites in New York State (which has the most extensive surveillance network of states in this region) still don’t have recent data available on the CDC dashboard. So the true trend may be less drastic, but is still likely an increase.
COVID-19 test positivity is also increasing nationally, after a plateau for much of October and November. Health regions in the Northeast and Midwest report more aggressive increases in test positivity than those in the South and West. And the CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center estimates that COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in 22 states, as of December 9, including states across all regions.
While we are clearly moving into a period of higher COVID-19 spread, seasonal flu continues to increase more rapidly. National test positivity and emergency department visits are much higher for the flu than for COVID-19 in our latest data, and the CDC’s forecasting center estimates that flu cases are “growing or likely growing” in 43 states. We have also passed the CDC’s threshold for flu season, with over 3% of doctors’ visits in an agency surveillance network attributed to flu-like symptoms.
Flu, along with RSV and other viruses that spread through the air and close contact in winter, offer additional reasons to wear high-quality masks and follow other health measures. In New York City, where I live, the local health department has a new public campaign encouraging people to take precautions — including masking. California’s state health agency also recently encouraged people to wear N95 masks in a social media post. Every health agency should be running this type of campaign.
