Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 0.6 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending November 15.
- COVID-19 test positivity stayed about the same, with 3% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending November 15 and 2.7% positive during the week ending November 22.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 20% between November 15 and November 22, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “very low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 5% between November 12 and November 19, and the national wastewater trend is “medium,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness increased 10% between the week ending November 15 and the week ending November 22, and this metric is below the level indicating the official start of flu season.
While all U.S. COVID-19 metrics remain at low-to-moderate levels as of mid-November, wastewater data show clear signs of this year’s winter wave getting started in the Northeast and Midwest. The latest data are from before Thanksgiving, and the increases are likely to continue as outbreaks from holiday travel and gatherings show up in our numbers. Flu and RSV are picking up steam, too.
National wastewater trends from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN disagree this week. The CDC reports a substantial increase in its national average between November 15 and 22, while WWSCAN reports a slight decrease between November 12 and 19. (Biobot Analytics has not posted a report this week.)
Meanwhile, WWSCAN calls its latest levels “moderate” in contrast to the CDC’s “very low” — not because of a huge contrast in how their latest national averages compare to historical data, but due to differences in how the two dashboards analyze and present their data. Both dashboards agree, however, that the Midwest and Northeast are seeing sustained increases of SARS-CoV-2 in their wastewater, while viral levels in the West and South remain lower and stable.
Healthcare system data similarly show that the Midwest and Northeast are seeing the start of a likely winter wave before the rest of the country. Emergency department visits are clearly going up in these regions, according to the CDC’s disease forecasting center: the center estimates that COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in 17 states as of November 25, most of them in the Northeast and Midwest (plus Colorado). The agency has not yet updated its regional test positivity data following the holiday.
State-reported data back up the same trend. California reports very low SARS-CoV-2 levels in its wastewater. Kansas also reports low levels, in a new wastewater dashboard the state just launched. Meanwhile, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and Vermont (also with a new dashboard, upgrading from weekly reports) report increases in their wastewater.
Seasonal flu spread is accelerating more rapidly and uniformly than COVID-19, at least in our pre-Thanksgiving data: the CDC’s forecasting center estimates that flu cases are “growing or likely growing” in 41 states and not declining in any as of November 25. Test positivity and ED visits are also accelerating more for flu than for COVID-19. In New York City, ED visits for flu increased 142% between November 15 and November 22, while visits for COVID-19 decreased 22%.
Flu certainly merits some attention in the winter, but it does not pose as much of a chronic disease threat to every organ system as COVID-19 does. And yet, the CDC’s estimates of vaccinations so far show far more Americans getting their flu shots than their COVID-19 shots — disappointing but not surprising, given the Trump administration’s attacks on the COVID-19 shots. As of November 22, the agency estimates that about 39% of adults and 36% of children have gotten the latest flu vaccine, compared to just 15% of adults and 6% of children for COVID-19.
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[…] As I noted last week, far fewer Americans have received an updated COVID-19 vaccine this year than have received an updated flu vaccine. Vaccination rates for both viruses are also lower this year than in prior years, according to a report from CIDRAP. And our federal health agencies are doing anything but instilling confidence in these important (though far from perfect) public health tools. Last week, the CDC’s vaccine advisory committee, full of anti-vax members, voted to end a decades-old recommendation for all babies to get hepatitis B vaccines. […]