Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1.4 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending January 10.
- COVID-19 test positivity stayed about the same, with 5.1% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending January 17 and 5.3% during the week ending January 24.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 11% between January 17 and January 24, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “moderate,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 11% between January 14 and January 21, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness increased 7% between the week ending January 17 and the week ending January 24, and this metric remains at a high level.
COVID-19 levels are going up in parts of the South, West, and possibly the Midwest, while continuing to decline elsewhere. Trends suggest we may be in for a second round of this winter’s COVID-19 wave after the initial peak in early January. Flu levels increased this week, too, likely due to more influenza B spread.
The CDC and WastewaterSCAN both report moderate declines in their national averages of SARS-CoV-2 levels in sewage through late January. But at the regional level, it’s clear that COVID-19 spread is increasing in the South, according to both the CDC and WWSCAN. The CDC also reports a significant increase in the West and a slight increase in the Midwest, though the latter could be a result of uneven reporting across states.
Biobot Analytics similarly reports increasing SARS-CoV-2 levels in the Midwest, West, and South for the week ending January 24, as well as an increase in its national average. While the Northeast is the one region reported as declining across all three wastewater data providers, I am keeping a close eye on New York City — where I live, and where SARS-CoV-2 levels have been surprisingly low all winter so far.
We see a similar regional picture from the CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center, which estimates trends based on emergency department data. The center reports that COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in 11 states as of January 27: 10 states in South and central regions, plus California. And it reports cases are “declining or likely declining” in 11 states: states in the Midwest and Northeast, plus Alaska and Hawaii.
The CDC has not updated its regional test positivity data this week, but those data were also showing potential increases in the South and West last week.
Some national flu metrics also trended up for the week ending January 24: test positivity, emergency department visits, doctors’ visits for flu-like illness, flu levels in wastewater. Wastewater data suggest that influenza B is trending up across the U.S.; this is a different type of virus from influenza A, which has dominated this year’s flu season so far.
This year’s flu season has hit children and young adults especially hard compared to other age groups. Doctors’ visits for flu-like illness went up in the 0–4 and 5–24 age groups last week while declining for all other groups, per the CDC. And this week, the agency reported eight flu-associated deaths in children, bringing the season’s total to 52 so far.
