Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1.1 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending February 7.
- COVID-19 test positivity stayed about the same, with 5.4% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending January 31 and 5.1% positive during the week ending February 7.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 3% between January 31 and February 7, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “moderate,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 10% between January 28 and February 4, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness increased 4% between the week ending January 31 and the week ending February 7, and this metric remains at a high level.
Both COVID-19 and the seasonal flu have been spreading at higher levels in the U.S. for months now, and that trend is likely to continue with both pathogens for several more weeks. While national COVID-19 metrics are stable or slowly declining, the disease is increasing in concentration in some parts of the country as it decreases in others.
National averages of SARS-CoV-2 spread in wastewater from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all report very slow declines over the last month. The CDC’s national average wastewater viral activity level has declined by only 13% between January 17 and February 7, while WWSCAN’s has declined by 18% between January 14 and February 4. In prior winters, we’d see that degree of change in a single week.
Those national averages have not changed drastically because COVID-19 patterns are different across the country. SARS-CoV-2 levels may be declining again in the Midwest after a second peak in late January, according to all three wastewater surveillance sources, but these are preliminary data. Viral levels are also high (though likely declining) in the Northeast, while WWSCAN and the CDC both report potential increases in the South.
The CDC’s disease forecasting center estimates that COVID-19 levels are “growing or likely growing” in 13 states as of February 10: most of those are Southern states, along with a couple in the Midwest (North Dakota, Minnesota) and West (Idaho, Alaska). The center estimates that cases are “declining or likely declining” in eight states, largely those in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
I usually also look at regional test positivity data for these updates, but the CDC has not updated this dashboard yet for the week (likely due to the federal holiday yesterday). Still, national test positivity has stayed fairly consistent over the past month, suggesting that this metric is going up in some regions and down in others.
The seasonal flu also continues to spread at high levels and continues to impact the healthcare system more than COVID-19 (with much higher emergency department visits and test positivity). Wastewater and testing data show that the influenza B strain has been spreading more, contributing to an increase in overall flu levels in early February, while the influenza A strain declines. We may see a longer flu season than usual on top of the drawn-out winter COVID-19 wave.
Rather than encouraging public health measures to curb the spread of these viruses, though, the Trump administration keeps undermining vaccines. Last week, Moderna announced that the Food and Drug Administration has refused to consider approving its new mRNA flu shot after the company submitted an application — a move that could not only deprive the U.S. of a next-generation vaccine, but also discourage future vaccine research.
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[…] all report declines at the national level and for most regions through late February. However, as I noted two weeks ago, these declines are happening much more slowly than we’ve seen in prior winters, suggesting that […]