Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 0.2 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending May 30.
- COVID-19 test positivity stayed consistent, with 0.79% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending May 23 and 0.74% positive during the week ending May 30.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 11% between May 23 and May 30, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “very low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 17% between May 20 and May 27 and the national wastewater trend is “medium,” per WastewaterSCAN.
National COVID-19 estimates have remained very low in the U.S. through the end of May. There are signals of potential increases in some locations, but it’s hard to say if these represent isolated outbreaks or the start of a summer wave. Meanwhile, future funding for wastewater surveillance is under threat.
Continuing a trend from the last month, the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all report very low national and regional averages of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater. The CDC and Biobot report stable levels, while WWSCAN reports a modest increase in its most recent week of data. WWSCAN has also updated its national category for COVID-19 to “medium” even though its estimate of SARS-CoV-2 levels remains very low compared to historical data; these categories are based on both the magnitude and direction of viral levels.
WWSCAN also reports slight increases in its regional averages for the Midwest and Northeast, driven by increases at a handful of testing sites in Ohio, Nebraska, Minnesota, New York, and Massachusetts. One of these testing sites is in Oswego, New York, a city I previously flagged back in April for high SARS-CoV-2 levels. While Biobot had also reported an increase in the Midwest last week, their latest update says SARS-CoV-2 is “holding steady at very low levels in the Midwest.”
COVID-19 test positivity from the CDC’s laboratory testing network similarly reports very low levels nationally and in most regions, but has a couple of signals of potential increases. The CDC reports possible upticks in test positivity in New York and New Jersey (health region 2) and some Southern states (region 6). And the agency’s infectious disease forecasting center estimates COVID-19 cases are “likely growing” in Florida as of June 2, while they are “declining or likely declining” in 41 other states.
Locations like Oswego, New York could be hotspots for the variant BA.3.2, also called Cicada. BA.3.2 has continued to grow in prevalence slowly and have a limited impact on overall COVID-19 spread in the U.S. At least, as much as we can tell from sparse data. But a new preprint adds to evidence that children may be more susceptible to it, particularly to a lineage of BA.3.2 called BA.3.2.2.
Notably, the CDC forecasting center has recently started sharing some estimates at more granular levels: for health service areas (HSAs), counties or groups of counties that share a hospital system. These estimates are not available for about one-third of HSAS, as of June 2, so it’s far from a complete picture; still, it’s good to see any new data becoming available.
In less good data availability news: a recent article from Newsweek flagged that the CDC’s National Wastewater Surveillance System is under threat, due to funding cuts from the Trump administration. Without new funding in the CDC’s fiscal year 2027 budget, this system will need to drastically reduce testing starting this fall. The People’s CDC has a letter template for writing to Congress in favor of this funding. (I will be reporting on this more — send me comments and questions!)
