Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- COVID-19 test positivity increased significantly, from 1.3% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending July 4 to 1.6% positive during the week ending July 11.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater stayed consistent between July 4 and July 11, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “very low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 22% between July 1 and July 8, and the national wastewater trend is “high” (upward trend and medium concentration) per WastewaterSCAN.
We keep seeing more signs that a summer COVID-19 wave is underway in the U.S. The South and West have the most definitive signals of increasing cases, but there are potential outbreaks across the country. Still, as we’ve had a lower-than-average lull between waves this spring, recent levels are still very low compared to past summers.
WastewaterSCAN continues to report increases in its national average of SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater through mid-July. The organization has updated its category for SARS-CoV-2 to “high” — it’s worth noting that WWSCAN bases these categories on both magnitude (i.e. how recent levels compare to historical data) and direction (i.e. increasing or decreasing); most other data providers only use magnitude for their categories.
WWSCAN also now categorizes SARS-CoV-2 levels as “high” in the Northeast and Midwest and “medium” in the West and South. But there are WWSCAN testing sites with higher levels and recent increases across all regions. Biobot Analytics similarly reports an increase in its national average and increases in the Midwest and West, as of July 11.
The CDC’s wastewater data show fewer signs of a wave: the agency estimates “very low” wastewater viral activity nationally and across all regions, as it has for three months now. But these estimates are based on higher baselines than other data providers. And still, the CDC reports “high” wastewater viral activity levels in Guam, “moderate” levels in Texas, and “low” levels in Florida, Nevada, California, and Hawaii compared to “very low” in all other states.
Other CDC data report clearer upticks. The agency’s PCR test positivity network reports three weeks of increases in its national average and increases in several regions: New England (health region 1), the Southeast (region 4), Southern coastal states (region 6), the Southwest (region 9), and the Northwest (region 10). There are also less definitive increases in New York and New Jersey (region 2) and Mountain West (region 8).
Plus, the CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center estimates that COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in 18 states, including states across the South, West, and Midwest — and only “declining or likely declining” in three states — as of July 15.
![Chart from the California Department of Public Health showing SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater from summer 2024 through summer 2026, averaged from testing sites across the state. The chart includes a summary box in the top left, reading: "State: Level & Trend; Level: Very Low; Trend: Increase 49% [35%, 66%]; Data Source: All Laboratories." It also includes a summary table below the box, giving more detail on trends: out of 88 sites, 41 report increasing SARS-CoV-2 levels, 12 report plateaus, 20 report decreases, 10 report concentrations too low for a trend call, and 5 do not have sufficient data. On the right, there is a line chart, with the Y axis representing wastewater viral activity levels and the X axis representing time, going from July 2024 to July 2026. The chart shows summer waves in 2024 and 2026 followed by a long lull in winter and spring 2026. Levels have steadily increased over the last month but remain in the "very low" category.](https://i0.wp.com/thesicktimes.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/07/Screenshot-2026-07-20-200520.png?resize=1024%2C494&ssl=1)
Even after weeks of COVID-19 increases in some places, levels remain lower compared to past summers. In California, for example, the health department’s statewide average of SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater has clearly increased over the last month but is still “very low.” Recent national averages from WWSCAN are about one-fifth of the organization’s national average at the same time in July 2025, and less than one-tenth the average at this time in July 2024. It’s possible this summer’s wave could also be lower overall than in past years, but hard to say for sure.
Meanwhile, the cyclospora outbreak continues, with this parasite causing intense gastrointestinal symptoms for thousands of people across over 40 states. The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has identified lettuce from the company Taylor Farms as a potential source of the outbreak; contaminated lettuce has been distributed in 27 states across different restaurant and grocery store chains, according to the company. Your Local Epidemiologist posted a helpful article last week about lowering one’s risk of illness, though note it predates the Taylor Farms news.
