Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- COVID-19 test positivity increased slightly, from 2.1% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending July 18 to 2.4% positive during the week ending July 25.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater stayed consistent between July 18 and July 25, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “very low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 29% between July 15 and July 22, and the national wastewater trend is “medium,” per WastewaterSCAN.
The U.S. is about a month into a summer COVID-19 wave, with levels rising across much of the country, especially in the West and South. Still, some data sources continue to report “low” levels as compared to historical data, due to the long and lower-than-usual lull that preceded this wave.
Wastewater surveillance data from WastewaterSCAN and Biobot Analytics both report consistent increases in their national averages of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater and in the West and South over the last month, along with less consistent increases in the other major regions. WWSCAN continues to report high levels and significant upticks at testing sites across the country, such as sites in Maine, Vermont, Louisiana, Georgia, Florida, Alaska, Hawaii, and California.
The CDC is stubbornly still reporting that SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater are “very low” nationally and in all four regions. As I’ve noted over the last couple of weeks, this is partially because the CDC uses a higher baseline for comparison in presenting its wastewater data than other providers like WWSCAN. Still, the agency reports “low” and “moderate” levels in several West and South states: Alaska, Hawaii, California, Nevada, Missouri, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Florida.
CDC healthcare system data, meanwhile, continue to report rising COVID-19 cases. Test positivity from the agency’s PCR testing network is slowly but surely climbing, in the national average and several regions: the Great Lakes states (region 5), central South states (region 6), Plains states (region 7), and Southwest (region 9).
Plus, the CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center, which uses emergency department data, estimates that COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in 41 states, as of July 29, and not declining in any states.
Waves like this one are often driven by a combination of behavior, as people travel and gather indoors in hot summer weather, and evolving variants of the virus. There is not a clear variant of concern driving this wave yet; “COVID lineages are kind of chaos right now,” variant tracker Marc Johnson posted on social media last week. With very few test samples getting sequenced, health agencies and scientists have limited data to use to follow SARS-CoV-2’s ongoing evolution.
The parasite cyclospora also continues to spread. Yesterday, the Michigan health department reported two deaths from this pathogen, which causes severe gastrointestinal symptoms. Disability advocates criticized the New York Times for highlighting that both people who died had “significant underlying health conditions,” a rhetorical move also used frequently to downplay COVID-19’s destructive impacts on vulnerable people.
