Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 15% between August 12 and August 19, and the national wastewater trend is “high” (high concentration and upward trend), per WastewaterSCAN.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 31% between August 15 and August 22, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “very low,” per the CDC.
- COVID-19 test positivity increased slightly, from 4.4% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending August 15 to 4.6% positive during the week ending August 22.
The U.S.’s summer 2026 COVID-19 wave is in full swing. All disease tracking metrics report increased spread across the country, and the school year’s start and upcoming holiday weekend will cause further outbreaks. The Food & Drug Administration (FDA) has approved updated vaccines for this year, but they may be hard to access for many people thanks to Trump administration policies.
Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all report growing SARS-CoV-2 levels across all regions into late August. WWSCAN’s recent national average suggests current levels are close to the peak of last winter’s surge (though still far below the peaks of summer 2024 and 2025 waves). Biobot’s recent national average is much lower in comparison to its historical data, likely due to differences in testing sites and analysis practices between the two networks.
Meanwhile, the CDC still insists that the national wastewater viral activity level (WVAL) for SARS-CoV-2 is “very low,” though it describes regional WVALs for the South and West as “low” and state-level WVALs for some states within these regions as “moderate” and “high.” I recently shared a video explaining in more detail why the CDC’s wastewater dashboard often indicates that COVID-19 levels are low when other data providers represent them as higher.
Test positivity, as reported by the CDC’s PCR testing network, also continues to increase across the U.S. The South and West report the highest rates of positive COVID-19 tests, as they’ve been doing for several weeks. And the CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center estimates that COVID-19 cases are “growing” in the vast majority of states as of August 26.
Texas has emerged as a particular hotspot right now. SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater in the state are “very high” according to the CDC with 40 testing sites reporting, which is a particularly concerning reading given how high of a bar the CDC’s dashboard has for this category. Test positivity and emergency department visits for COVID-19 have also been higher in Texas and surrounding states than in other regions.
Influenza-like illness, a metric reflecting urgent care and other doctor’s visits for fever, coughs, and sore throat, has also started increasing in late August after staying consistently low throughout the spring and early summer. This increase likely reflects the very start of flu season with children going back to school, though it may also include some COVID-19 cases as the diseases have some overlap in symptoms.
Last week, the FDA approved COVID-19 vaccines that have been updated to protect against recently-circulating variants, specifically the XFG strain. Pfizer, Moderna, and Novavax have all told news outlets that they are starting to ship their updated vaccines to pharmacies, and appointments will start to be available in the coming days and weeks. However, only Americans over age 65 and those with a “preexisting condition” that increases risk of severe COVID-19 are officially eligible for the vaccines.
In many places, it’s still possible to get vaccinated for COVID-19 without being formally eligible, but people faced challenges with making appointments and getting their insurance to cover the shots under similar federal policies last year. Zeest Khan has a helpful article on her Substack, Long COVID, MD, summarizing what people with Long COVID should know about the updated vaccines.
