Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 4% between August 26 and September 2, and the national wastewater trend is “high” (high concentration and upward trend), per WastewaterSCAN.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater stayed consistent between August 29 and September 5, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “very low,” per the CDC.
- COVID-19 test positivity stayed consistent, with 5.6% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during both the week ending August 29 and the week ending September 5.
This summer’s COVID-19 wave may have reached its peak in some parts of the country, as major metrics report disease levels stagnating or starting to decline as of early September. But levels remain high in many places, particularly in the West and South. And we are approaching the start of the season for flu and other respiratory viruses that spread in colder weather.
Wastewater data from the CDC and Biobot Analytics report that national averages of SARS-CoV-2 in sewage have leveled off in recent weeks. WastewaterSCAN still reports an increasing national average through early September, but the rate of that increase has slowed down a lot compared to the rapid climb reported in August.
The West and South have reported the highest SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater throughout this wave, as it’s become common for these regions to have bigger waves in the summer than the winter over the last couple of years. In the West, wastewater data from both WWSCAN and Biobot suggest that COVID-19 outbreaks may still be growing in some places.
Healthcare system data show a similar picture. Test positivity data from the CDC’s PCR testing network report a stagnant national average between August 22 and September 5, and positivity rates continue to be much higher in the South and West — particularly in Texas and surrounding states — than other regions.
The CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center estimates that COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in 35 states as of September 9, including states across the West, Midwest, and Northeast. The center also estimates cases are “declining or likely declining” in eight states, all in the South, and “not changing” in seven.
Based on wastewater data, this summer’s wave appears to have included fewer COVID-19 cases than prior summers’. However, such comparisons always need to come with a large grain of salt, because scientists don’t have a great sense of how the coronavirus’ continued evolution, as well as the many other factors that make wastewater data messy, has impacted the way individual infections show up in sewage. Biobot researchers recently shared an article showing how they approach comparing wastewater data over time.
While the COVID-19 wave may be peaking, other viruses are slowly starting to enter the picture. The CDC’s flu surveillance network reports growing cases of influenza-like illness, or people seeking healthcare for fever plus cough or sore throat, over recent weeks. This is a broad metric that can include some COVID-19 cases along with flu, RSV, and other viruses that cause similar respiratory symptoms.
New vaccines are starting to become available in pharmacies and doctor’s offices, including the Novavax vaccines that some people with Long COVID and related diseases often prefer due to their more limited side effects. Please reach out if you have questions about — or challenges with accessing — these vaccines, and we’ll seek to answer them in future updates.
