Here are the latest national Covid-19 trends, according to the CDC and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- New hospital admissions with Covid-19 have increased 10%, from 2,400 admissions per day during the week ending November 11 to 2,600 admissions per day during the week ending November 18.
- Test positivity has decreased 17%, from 9.9% of Covid-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending November 11 to 8.2% of positive tests during the week ending November 18.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have increased 7% between the week ending November 11 and the week ending November 18.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 11% between November 15 and November 22, per Biobot Analytics.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 2% between November 13 and November 20, per WastewaterSCAN.
Most Covid-19 data sources point to a continued slow increase in the coronavirus’ spread across the country. Due to reporting delays, our most recent numbers are from the week before Thanksgiving; I expect that next week’s data will show a sharper uptick driven by holiday travel and gatherings with few widespread safety measures.
SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater, our best way to get early warnings about Covid-19 spread, are steadily rising, according to both Biobot Analytics and WastewaterSCAN. Biobot’s estimates of national coronavirus concentration suggest that transmission is now the highest it’s been since mid-September, near the peak of this past summer’s surge.
Both wastewater data sources suggest that coronavirus levels were increasing across all regions of the country for several weeks before Americans started traveling for Thanksgiving. Sewage testing sites in the Midwest are reporting the sharpest uptick, followed by the Northeast, then the West and South. A recent paper from scientists monitoring wastewater in New York State adds further evidence to this data source’s value, finding that models based on wastewater data could predict Covid-19 hospitalizations with more accuracy than models based on clinical case counts.
According to the CDC, hospitalizations for Covid-19 have also been trending up for a couple of weeks now, with new patients admitted for the disease approaching levels reported during the summer surge. Test positivity data from the CDC’s surveillance network appeared to show a decrease in positive Covid-19 tests last week — but I’m skeptical of that trend, because 1) positivity had been rising for a couple of weeks prior, and 2) the CDC often retroactively edits its positivity numbers up, especially after holidays.
Other respiratory diseases are spreading widely right now, according to the CDC and wastewater surveillance organizations. About 3.7% of doctor’s visits in the week ending November 18 were for a respiratory virus, per the CDC, with high levels of influenza-like illness across the South. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in particular is at a high point right now, spreading at similar levels to the surge we observed during this time last year.
If you haven’t received your updated Covid-19 vaccine yet, this is a great time to do so, before newer variants like BA.2.86 displace the viral strains that this fall’s vaccines better target. I’ve recently been telling friends about the Novavax vaccine, which research suggests has fewer side effects than the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines and may be a better option for some people with Long Covid and other medical considerations. The flu vaccine and RSV vaccine (available for adults over age 60) are also important protective measures — along with masking, testing, clean air, and other safety measures, of course.
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