Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1.9 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending January 3.
- COVID-19 test positivity stayed about the same, with 5% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending January 3 and 5.2% positive during the week ending January 10.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 8% between January 3 and January 10, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “moderate,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 7% between December 31 and January 7, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness decreased 26% between the week ending January 3 and the week ending January 10, but this metric remains at a high level.
The COVID-19 trends surprised me this week: several major national metrics are trending down, despite not yet reaching high levels comparable to what we typically see at the peaks of surges. This could be good news, but tread with caution; these data are preliminary, and SARS-CoV-2 is an unpredictable virus. Flu levels are also trending down, yet remain high.
The latest wastewater data from the CDC (through January 10) and WastewaterSCAN (through January 7) both report modest declines in their national averages of SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater. I have more faith in WWSCAN’s trends right now, as CDC wastewater levels continue to fluctuate dramatically — going up a lot one week, then less so the next — in a pattern I’ve observed over the last month. However, Biobot Analytics reports continued increases in its national average through January 10.
If recent viral levels in wastewater do turn out to be the peak of this winter’s COVID-19 wave, it would be a much lower peak than in prior years. WWSCAN’s national SARS-CoV-2 average at the end of December 2025 was less than half of this metric at the peak of last summer’s surge (early September 2025) or last winter’s surge (late December 2024). And this recent WWSCAN average is just one-seventh of the peak of 2023’s winter surge.
Healthcare system data also show that COVID-19 levels could have passed this season’s peak. National test positivity from the CDC’s surveillance network increased slightly (from 5% to 5.2%) from January 3 to 10, while emergency department visits declined slightly (from 1% to 0.8%). The agency’s disease forecasting center estimates that COVID-19 cases are “declining or likely declining” in 39 states as of January 13, and only “likely growing” in two (D.C. and Hawaii).
Amid these potential declines, the Midwest and Northeast continue to see much higher COVID-19 levels than the South and West, according to all three wastewater sources as well as emergency department and test positivity data. Test positivity rates are also still increasing for some states in these regions, particularly health region 5, which includes the Great Lakes states. And the CDC reports continued increasing SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater for the Midwest.
Flu cases are trending down more definitively, with major CDC metrics reporting declines for two weeks in a row both nationally and in all regions. Levels of flu remain high to very high across the country, though, as the flu variant H3N2 continues to dominate this severe season. I’ll continue closely watching the flu data, as flu seasons sometimes have two peaks (that’s what happened last year).
The current COVID-19 picture is difficult to interpret, as public health agencies have dismantled the comprehensive tracking systems that we had back in 2020-2021. It’s possible that we could see a wave with far fewer cases this winter, but also possible that COVID-19 levels will go back up or stay moderate-to-high for longer rather than hitting a definitive peak. In times like these, it’s particularly important to look for local data as the picture in your area could be very different from a national or regional one.
One response
[…] As I noted last week, this winter’s peak has been notably lower than the peaks of prior winter surges, according to national averages. This isn’t true for all regions, though: the Midwest in particular has reported very high SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater, comparable to or perhaps higher than last winter (depending on which dataset you look at). Viral levels have been high in the Northeast, too. […]