Here are the latest national Covid-19 trends, according to the CDC and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- New hospital admissions with Covid-19 have decreased 14%, from 4,400 admissions per day during the week ending January 13 to 3,800 admissions per day during the week ending January 20.
- Test positivity has decreased 10%, from 12% of Covid-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending January 13 to 10.8% of tests during the week ending January 20.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have decreased 9% between the week ending January 13 and the week ending January 20.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 21% between the week ending January 13 and the week ending January 20, and the national wastewater viral activity level is high, per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 4% between January 20 and January 27, per Biobot Analytics.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 5% between January 15 and January 23, per WastewaterSCAN.
All available Covid-19 metrics suggest that the U.S. is a couple of weeks past the peak of this winter’s major surge. Hospital-related metrics, test positivity and SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater are all declining. However, some wastewater dashboards suggest we may be approaching a plateau in transmission, meaning the steep decline observed over the last two weeks may end.
Wastewater trends from the CDC show declining SARS-CoV-2 levels across the country, with the exception of a potential increase in the West between January 13 and 20. The CDC has updated its national viral activity level for Covid-19 to “high,” from “very high.” In addition, the agency retroactively updated viral levels from the peak of this winter’s surge, placing them closer to (though still above) last year’s peak.
Biobot Analytics and WastewaterSCAN, two other national wastewater dashboards, suggest that the recent decline in national coronavirus levels may have reached a plateau around January 20. Biobot is back to updating its data on Mondays after an altered schedule during the holidays, and the company’s latest data show a potential similar pattern to last year: a slow decline from the late-December peak, rather than a sharp decrease in infections. Recent data are, as always, subject to change, but this could be a bad sign for the coming weeks.
Healthcare system data — which present delayed indicators — continue to show this winter’s surge in decline. New hospital admissions for Covid-19 fell by 14% between January 13 and 20, after falling by 11% between January 6 and 13, according to the CDC. The share of emergency department visits attributed to Covid-19 is similarly dropping, at 2.15% during the week ending January 20 (after peaking at 3.39% during the week ending December 30).
The CDC’s data suggest that the big respiratory diseases, flu and RSV, are also in decline this week. Southern and a few Western states (California, Colorado, New Mexico), as well as New York City, continue to report the highest levels of influenza-like illness. Meanwhile, there’s a lot of novorirus (a common and nasty stomach bug) going around, according to WWSCAN’s data.
While the worst of this winter’s Covid-19 surge may be over, there is still tons of this virus going around — and it may take several more weeks (if not months) for national levels to reach a lower baseline. Even if you got infected recently, as this writer did, it’s worthwhile to remain cautious to avoid reinfection with a new variant or another airborne virus.
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