Here are the latest national Covid-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1 in every 100,000 people was hospitalized for Covid-19 during the week ending June 1. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- Covid-19 test positivity has increased 10%, from 4.1% of Covid-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending May 25 to 4.5% of tests during the week ending June 1.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have decreased 3% between the week ending May 25 and the week ending June 1, and these visits are below the baseline for respiratory virus season.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 7% between the week ending May 25 and the week ending June 1, and the national wastewater viral activity level is low, per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 8% between the week of May 27 and the week of June 3, per Biobot Analytics.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 21% between May 27 and June 3, per WastewaterSCAN.
Following the same trends from recent weeks, the U.S.’s expected summer Covid-19 wave continues to rise. According to wastewater surveillance and our limited healthcare system data, infections are rising quickly in California and other West Coast states, and progressing more slowly (but still increasing) in other regions.
The CDC’s wastewater surveillance dashboard and Biobot’s latest “respiratory risk report” both report modest increases (7% and 8% respectively) in national SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater between late May and early June. WastewaterSCAN’s dashboard shows a steeper increase, at 21% between May 27 and June 3, with the West Coast driving this acceleration. In California, current coronavirus levels are close to the peak of last summer’s surge, according to WWSCAN.
It’s important to note — as I explained to fellow health journalists during a conference talk over the weekend — that no one of these three wastewater data providers is necessarily more accurate than the others. They all represent different testing sites, testing procedures, and methods for analyzing and presenting data. Looking at all three is like taking three pictures of the same landscape through three different cameras, and putting different filters on them.
One of those differences is that WastewaterSCAN has more sites in California than any other U.S. state, as the organization started by testing in the Bay Area in 2020. The WWSCAN team does adjust its national trend data to compensate for geography, scientists there have told me, but I think it’s still important to keep in mind that this dashboard has more comprehensive data for California and the West Coast than other parts of the country.
Backing up the trends from WWSCAN, healthcare system metrics for California and other West Coast states show that test positivity and emergency department visits are also going up in this region. The increase in infections hasn’t yet impacted hospital admissions for Covid-19, though; this metric typically goes up a few weeks after wastewater and other earlier indicators.
The CDC’s variant estimates, updated this week, find that several variants in the FLiRT family are all competing to infect and reinfect people across the U.S. These variants, combined with our lack of collective safety measures, will drive many more cases this summer. Stay wary and use layered precautions as you plan ahead for travel and gatherings. On that note: we were excited to be featured as a resource in a recent zine by ACT UP NY that offers recommendations for COVID-safer Pride!
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