Here are the latest national Covid-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1 in every 100,000 people was hospitalized for Covid-19 during the week ending May 25. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- Covid-19 test positivity has increased 23%, from 3.4% of Covid-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending May 18 to 4.2% of tests during the week ending May 25.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have decreased 5% between the week ending May 18 and the week ending May 25, and these visits are below the baseline for respiratory virus season.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 7% between the week ending May 18 and the week ending May 25, and the national wastewater viral activity level is low, per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 11% between the week of May 20 and the week of May 27, per Biobot Analytics.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 11% between May 20 and May 27, per WastewaterSCAN.
Our annual summer Covid-19 wave continues to progress in the U.S., with wastewater testing and other early indicators pointing to slow-but-steady increases in disease spread. West Coast states, especially Hawaii and California, are reporting the greatest increases. Even with delayed and spotty data, we have enough information to signal this is a good time to ramp up precautions when planning ahead for the summer.
The national wastewater data providers agree that SARS-CoV-2 levels continue to rise. Based on historical data from WastewaterSCAN and Biobot Analytics, current levels are now about 50% higher than this time last year, as this summer’s wave is getting underway somewhat earlier. (While Biobot discontinued its dashboard last month, the company is still sharing some national and regional Covid-19 data via weekly reports.)
Covid-19 test positivity and emergency department visits are also increasing nationally, according to the CDC, though hospitalizations are still relatively low as it takes a few weeks for increased infections to lead to increased patients in hospitals. While the CDC didn’t update its variant estimates this week, we can assume the FLiRT variants continue to spread and outcompete older lineages.
Increased Covid-19 spread is more prominent on the West Coast than other regions, according to wastewater data. The CDC reports “very high” SARS-CoV-2 levels in Hawaii, and “high” or “moderate” levels in California, Washington, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, and New Mexico. WastewaterSCAN, which was founded at Stanford University and has many testing sites across California, reports major increases in San Francisco and other Bay Area sewersheds.
Along with California, Hawaii appears to be dealing with the summer wave earlier than other states. In addition to increasing coronavirus levels in its wastewater, the state’s health department reports rapidly increasing emergency department visits and hospital admissions for Covid-19 in the last two weeks. We don’t have variant data specific to this state, but it seems likely that it was hit early by FLiRT variants.
You might have seen some recent headlines or posts claiming Covid-19 deaths are at an all-time low. Unlike other metrics, the CDC is still tracking deaths. However, these numbers are reported slowly — as it takes time for death certificates to be filled out and counted — and it is harder to identify Covid-19 deaths now than earlier in the pandemic due to less testing and healthcare resources devoted to this disease. So it’s likely that the “record low” counts are missing people and will be revised to higher numbers later. Plus, Covid-19 deaths are sure to increase again, following increased cases, without durable, collective safety measures.
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