Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 4.4 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending August 17. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- COVID-19 test positivity has decreased 4%, from 17.8% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending August 17 to 17% of tests during the week ending August 24.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 4% between the week ending August 17 and the week ending August 24, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “very high,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 9% between August 14 and August 21, per WastewaterSCAN.
Our COVID-19 picture in the U.S. remains mixed — though still at very high levels. Disease spread on the West Coast is finally in a clear downturn, putting an end to the region’s long and intense summer surge in sight, but infections are still increasing in other regions. And new vaccines are out (including Novavax), yet difficult to access.
Continuing the trends from last week, wastewater surveillance data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN indicate that SARS-CoV-2 infections are declining — though still very high! — on the West Coast. The South, now in a plateau (if you look at CDC data) or decline (if you look at WastewaterSCAN’s), has surpassed the West in wastewater viral activity, marking the first time another region has been above the West since May. Biobot Analytics still has not shared updated data since mid-August.
Meanwhile, SARS-CoV-2 activity continues to increase in the Northeast and Midwest, two regions hit less hard by the summer surge so far. Our limited healthcare system data show similar results to the wastewater data: COVID-19 hospitalizations, emergency department visits, and test positivity have decreased slightly at the national level, reflecting decreases in the West and South and increases in the Northeast and Midwest.
The CDC’s modeled estimates of infection trends report that, as of late August, COVID-19 cases are “declining or likely declining” in nine states: Washington, Oregon, California, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, New York, and Connecticut. Cases are “growing or likely growing” in 20 states, including those across the Midwest and Northeast and a couple in the South (Florida, Arkansas).
Even in these states where coronavirus activity is declining, case levels remain very high. Without any collective measures to reduce infections, it takes a long time for a COVID-19 wave to wane. We may get a brief fall respite (depending on where you live), as there isn’t yet a new variant competing with the currently dominant KP.3.1.1 — but still, our baseline of spread in the U.S. remains high. (For more discussion of this pattern, see my interview on the podcast Death Panel!)
New COVID-19 vaccines are now out for fall 2024, including the Novavax vaccine, authorized by the Food and Drug Administration on Friday. These vaccines will help to reduce the risk of severe COVID-19 symptoms and Long COVID from the latest variants, yet do not stop disease spread. Only one in five U.S. adults received a fall 2023 vaccine; with limited awareness of the new shots and challenges to access, the number likely won’t be higher this year.
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