Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 4 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending August 10. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- COVID-19 test positivity stayed consistent, with 18% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during both the weeks ending August 10 and 17.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 3% between the week ending August 10 and the week ending August 17, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “very high,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 6% between August 7 and August 14, per WastewaterSCAN.
Has this summer’s COVID-19 surge peaked yet? My answer this week is maybe, but it depends on where you live: disease levels appear to be declining or steady in some regions, while still going up in others. Updated vaccines are now available, but months too late and too difficult to access to make a significant difference for this summer’s wave.
Wastewater surveillance data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN suggest that national coronavirus levels in wastewater remain stubbornly high. It’s tough to say for sure without more robust healthcare data, but it is likely that this summer’s surge is the most intense of the pandemic so far in terms of infections. (Hospitalizations remain lower than 2020-’22, based on those facilities that have consistently reported to the CDC through 2024.)
The CDC’s and WastewaterSCAN’s wastewater data now report two weeks of declining coronavirus levels for the West Coast and South, which is a promising sign for those regions. Levels are still increasing in the Northeast and Midwest, however. Biobot Analytics, usually my third wastewater data source in these updates, has not posted a “risk report” for this week.
Similar to the wastewater data, test positivity and emergency visits are declining for the West Coast and South, but still rising for the Northeast and Midwest. Some of these states have also moved out of “very high” categories on the CDC’s wastewater viral activity levels map, but are still in “high” levels. The CDC hasn’t updated its epidemic growth estimates since August 16, though at that time, the agency’s modeling team estimated that several states had “likely declining” COVID-19 cases.
Last week, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved updated Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines for this fall, tailored to recent variant KP.2. As the CDC has already recommended updated vaccines, the shots will quickly become available. But the FDA has not yet approved an updated vaccine from Novavax, which many immunocompromised people have preferred as it is protein-based and leads to less severe side effects.
And these vaccines can be complicated to get ahold of, as they are now fully distributed through private healthcare companies. The CDC’s Bridge Access Program, which provided free vaccines to uninsured or underinsured people, ends this month. Even as the federal government continues a vaccine-only — and, okay, maybe just four rapid tests a year — strategy, it makes these so-called “tools” difficult to access.
Leave a Reply