Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 3.9 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending August 31. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- COVID-19 test positivity has decreased 10%, from 16.5% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending August 31 to 14.9% of tests during the week ending September 7.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 0.5% between the week ending August 31 and the week ending September 7, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “high,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 1% between August 28 and September 4, per WastewaterSCAN.
This summer’s COVID-19 surge continues to wane slowly. Disease levels are still very high and may even be increasing in some regions across the U.S. The start of school and onset of colder weather are driving new outbreaks, while vaccination is unlikely to make a dent in transmission due to failures of access and communication.
Wastewater surveillance data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN show persistent plateaus: the national average of SARS-CoV-2 activity in wastewater hasn’t changed much between early August and early September. This high plateau represents significantly more disease spread than the peak of last summer’s surge.
At the regional level, it seems the West Coast really can’t catch a break this season: CDC data suggest that viral activity may be increasing again in this region, though the data are provisional and may change. COVID-19 activity is at a plateau in the Midwest, declining in the South, and maybe declining in the Northeast (the CDC’s data show a decline, while WastewaterSCAN’s show a plateau for this region).
Biobot Analytics still has not shared a wastewater data report since mid-August. I reached out to the company last week to ask about the status of their weekly reports, and heard back on Friday. A spokesperson said: “Due to some internal changes with our website management & August vacations we’re definitely behind, but we should be back up and running with the updates next week!” (As of publication on Tuesday, no updates yet.)
Test positivity and hospitalization data similarly report modest, slow declines in COVID-19 spread over the last month. The CDC’s modeled estimates of disease spread report that, as of September 10, COVID-19 cases are “declining or likely declining” in 31 states and only “growing or likely growing” in three states (Idaho, Montana, and South Dakota). These estimates are based on emergency department visits for COVID-19, a delayed indicator; the trends may change as the school year and weather changes progress.
While COVID-19 vaccination data aren’t out yet for this fall, a recent survey by researchers at the Ohio State University found that only 43% of American adults had received or planned to get an updated vaccine — compared to 56% for this year’s flu shot. COVID-19 vaccination rates were also much lower than flu vaccination rates last year, thanks to challenges with accessing the now-fully-privatized shots (which cost around $200 without insurance) combined with a lack of public health messaging about their importance. If you’re looking for a Novavax vaccine, this locator tool from the company may help.
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