National COVID-19 trends, October 1

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October 1, 2024

A map of the United States color-coded in shades of maroon, orange, and gray displaying SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Viral Activity level as of September 21, 2024, where deeper tones correlate to higher viral activity and gray indicates “Insufficient,” or “No Data.” Text above the map reads “Very High” or “High” levels in 34 states. Data is unavailable for Guam, North Dakota, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. At the bottom, text reads People’s CDC. Source: CDC. — Chart via the People’s CDC (data from the CDC).

Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:

About 3.6 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending September 14. (Note that these are provisional data.)
COVID-19 test positivity has decreased 13%, from 13.4% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending September 14 to 11.6% of tests during the week ending September 21.
SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 22% between the week ending September 14 and the week ending September 21, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “high,” per the CDC.
SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 30% between September 11 and September 18, per WastewaterSCAN.

COVID-19 spread is still declining from this summer’s peak, with wastewater and healthcare system data showing decreases across regions. Disease levels are unlikely to drop too much further, though, before a new variant and cold weather behavior contribute to a winter surge.

Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all report declining SARS-CoV-2 levels nationally over the last month. CDC and WWSCAN data both suggest that current levels are similar to this time last year, indicating a significant drop from the higher summer wave. (Biobot has not provided specific data points in its report again this week, making it tougher to compare to historical trends for that data provider.)

Hospitalization and testing data show a similar picture: testing labs and emergency departments in the CDC’s surveillance networks have both reported declining COVID-19 indicators over the last month. The share of emergency department visits diagnosed as COVID-19 dropped by about half between August 24 and September 21, while test positivity declined by 30%.

At the regional level, the CDC and WastewaterSCAN agree that SARS-CoV-2 levels are declining across all four U.S. regions. Biobot is an outlier in reporting higher and increasing viral levels in the Northeast. This could be a product of different dashboards representing different sampling sites; for example, Biobot’s data include Boston, which reported a late-September increase. We’ll see in the coming weeks if other data sources identify a similar trend.

New variant XEC is now spreading in the U.S., according to the CDC’s latest variant update. The agency estimates that this variant caused 6% of new SARS-CoV-2 infections between September 15 and 28, compared to about 60% for the currently-dominant variant (KP.3.1.1). XEC is a recombinant variant, meaning it evolved when someone was infected with two different strains at once. It’s spreading quickly in Europe — particularly Germany, where it was first identified — and will likely help spur on this winter’s surge in the U.S.

As we prepare for another winter of COVID-19, vaccination is a far-from-perfect public health tool but can make a big difference for reducing severe symptoms. One recent study from the CDC found that infants under six months in age, who are too young to be vaccinated, were hospitalized for COVID-19 at higher rates than any other age group except for the oldest (over 75) from fall 2022 through spring 2024. Vaccination during pregnancy significantly reduces the risk for babies to become severely ill from COVID-19.