Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 2.3 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending October 12. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- COVID-19 test positivity has decreased 15%, from 6.6% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending October 12 to 5.6% of tests during the week ending October 19.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 14% between the week ending October 5 and the week ending October 12, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 14% between October 9 and October 16, per WastewaterSCAN.
Our quieter period between surges continues. Most COVID-19 data sources report that disease spread remains moderate and decreasing in the U.S., but some metrics indicate that spread could be starting to increase again in a few states. This remains a good time to get up-to-date on vaccines and prepare for a likely winter surge; though it’s important to remember that these moderate periods between waves are still much higher than true times of low COVID-19 spread earlier in the pandemic.
Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all report continued declines in SARS-CoV-2 levels nationwide. I flagged last week that the CDC reported a slight increase in viral levels in the Northeast; this region is trending down again according to the agency’s most recent update. New York State, which was delayed in sending wastewater data to the CDC last week, is now up-to-date both at the CDC site and on the state’s dashboard.
Test positivity and hospitalizations also continue to decline nationally and across most regions, according to the labs and hospitals reporting to the CDC. Throughout October, less than 1% of emergency department visits reported to the agency have been diagnosed as COVID-19, the lowest rate reported since this spring. It is worth noting that hospitals are not testing for the disease as stringently as they were earlier in the pandemic.
However, not all regions are still clearly on the decline. The CDC’s state-by-state estimates of epidemic trends find that SARS-CoV-2 infections are “likely growing” in seven states: New York, Michigan, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennesee, Arkansas, and Georgia. Infections are declining, likely declining, not changing, or data are insufficient for all other states. Meanwhile, flu infections are “growing or likely growing” across 22 states, according to the same CDC center.
One reason for increasing infections in some regions may be the XEC variant, which is growing in the U.S. after contributing to surges in other countries. XEC caused an estimated 17% of infections between October 12 and 26, up from 10% in the prior two weeks, per the CDC. While this variant is not growing as quickly as other concerning lineages have in the past, it can still ignite outbreaks — especially when paired with a lack of collective safety measures.
Last week, the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommended that seniors (over age 65) and immunocompromised adults should receive additional doses of the 2024-25 COVID-19 vaccines this spring, or six months after their first doses. The recommendation is an important step for protecting these vulnerable groups; however, the CDC has taken very few steps to recommend masks, which do more to prevent infection.
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