Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1.5 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending November 9. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- COVID-19 test positivity has decreased 7%, from 4.0% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending November 9 to 3.7% of tests during the week ending November 16.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 3% between the week ending November 9 and the week ending November 16, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 8% between November 6 and November 13, and the national wastewater trend is “low,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have increased 8% between the week ending November 8 and the week ending November 16, and this metric is approaching the threshold for flu season.
COVID-19 levels remain moderate this week across the U.S., continuing the plateau that we’ve been experiencing over the last month. But there are signs our expected winter increase is starting in some regions, and the holiday this week will amplify outbreaks. Flu, RSV, and other viruses are also spreading as we head into the “respiratory virus season” period.
Wastewater levels remain on the lower side — much lower than expected for this time of year — and are not significantly increasing, according to the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics. This trend is fairly consistent across regions, though the Midwest is reporting slightly higher levels than the Northeast, West, and South, per both the CDC and WWSCAN.
While this is good news, it’s important to note that wastewater data are reported with delays. Our most recent national numbers from the CDC, Biobot, and WWSCAN are all from more than a week ago (November 16, as I write this on November 26). It’s very possible that infections have started to increase in the last week, as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday.
And indeed, this is what the CDC’s forecasting center — which provides modeled estimates of more up-to-date infection trends — suggests is happening. The center estimates that SARS-CoV-2 infections are starting to grow nationally and are “growing or likely growing” in eight states: New York, Indiana, Illinois, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, Kansas. A recent report in the CDC’s journal found that this center’s estimates accurately lined up with disease trends this past summer.
Holiday travel and gatherings this week are likely to spur outbreaks of COVID-19 as well as other viruses. The CDC’s flu surveillance reports that cases of this less-novel respiratory illness have been increasing in recent weeks; in the week ending November 16, about 2.7% of outpatient doctor’s visits were for flu-like symptoms, getting close to the level indicating flu season has started (3%). RSV is also increasing, while norovirus is at high levels right now, per WWSCAN. The bird flu H5N1 remains a risk too; health officials recently identified this virus in raw milk being sold at California grocery stores.
We’ll be better equipped to track COVID-19 spread this winter, as the CDC has resumed sharing data from many hospitals after a new reporting rule took effect this month. About 85% of hospitals are reporting COVID-19, flu, and RSV data as of November 16. The data show that, even at this time of more moderate spread, COVID-19 patients are taking up more hospital beds than flu and RSV patients. Despite this risk, 2024 vaccination rates for flu continue to be much higher than those for COVID-19.
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