National COVID-19 trends, December 24

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December 24, 2024

Two state-by-state maps of the U.S., color-coded according to infectious disease trends. Dark purple represents infections are growing, light purple is likely growing, gray is not changing, light green is likely declining, dark green is declining, white is not estimated. The map on the left, showing COVID-19 trends, is a mix of light and dark purple with some gray. Text at the top reads: "As of December 17, 2024, we estimate that COVID-19 infections are growing or likely growing in 36 states, declining or likely declining in 0 states, and not changing in 11 states." The map on the right, showing flu trends, is almost entirely dark purple. Text at the top reads: "As of December 17, 2024, we estimate that influenza infections are growing or likely growing in 46 states, declining or likely declining in 0 states, and not changing in 1 state." — Charts via the CDC’s Center for Forecasting and Outbreak Analytics, data as of December 17.

Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:

About 1.6 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending December 7. (Note that these are provisional data.)
COVID-19 test positivity has increased 10%, from 5.1% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending December 7 to 5.6% of tests during the week ending December 14.
SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 26% between the week ending December 7 and the week ending December 14, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “moderate,” per the CDC.
SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 29% between December 4 and December 11, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have increased 13% between the week ending December 7 and the week ending December 14, and this metric has passed the threshold for flu season.

COVID-19 and other viruses continue to spread more across the U.S., as cold weather and holidays continue to drive travel and indoor gatherings. Since public health agencies take holiday breaks, COVID-19 data will be reported with delays over the next two weeks — so it’s important to remember that current levels are likely higher than what you see reported nationally and for your community.

Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics (which finally posted an update this week) all report clear increases in SARS-CoV-2 levels across the country. These levels are still lower than typical for this time of year, but increasing rapidly. We may end up with a less intense winter COVID-19 surge than the last two years, or a similar-sized one but with its peak later in the season.

The Midwest and Northeast remain the regions with the highest SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater, though levels are going up in the South and West, too. According to the CDC, states with “very high” viral levels in wastewater as of December 14 include Kansas, Missouri, New Hampshire, and New Mexico. Washington D.C. and 15 states across the Northeast and Midwest reported “high” levels.

Emergency department data show a similar picture: COVID-19 cases going up across the country. The CDC’s disease forecasting center reports that infections are “growing or likely growing” in 36 states, including states across the country, and are not declining in any states. Flu infections are “growing or likely growing” in 46 states, according to the same center. RSV, norovirus, and other seasonal viruses are also spreading widely right now.

Speaking of flu: the bird flu H5N1 has been in the news again this week, as the CDC confirmed the U.S.’s first severe case and California Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency for this disease. It’s important to note that the H5N1 virus is only spreading from animals to people (not between people) right now; the recent severe case was likely from sick birds, and other human cases in the U.S. this year have been among dairy farm workers. But health experts are very concerned about the disease’s potential to continue spreading, as U.S. agencies have failed to contain outbreaks at dairy farms.

This is my last COVID-19 trends update for the year, as The Sick Times is taking a week off for a holiday break. While data will be reported with delays in the coming weeks, the coronavirus (and other viruses) are very much still spreading. I wish you all well-sealed masks, negative tests, and good health this holiday season.

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H5N1, influenza, national COVID-19 trends

Betsy Ladyzhets

Betsy Ladyzhets is a co-founder and the managing editor of The Sick Times.

One response

David

December 25, 2024

Hi Betsy,
I really appreciate the work you are doing to keep us updated. I wish there was an easier way to do a “look back” on mortality figures since they are now so lagged. I tried following the weekly info on the CDC website (hard to find) and updating the weeks as time passed. What I found was very disturbing. Rather than being a few weeks out of date – and of course therefore undercounted – they had actually grown by huge amounts a couple of months later. So as a current measure they are just no use. If somebody worked at it, and there was some consistency about the relationship between the time lags and the higher numbers, maybe some adjustment to provide useful, maybe much more current estimates could be calculated. I’ve always considered mortality as the “best” measure because it can be compared to annual flu deaths over many years. Most of us have lived with flu risks for many years.