Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 3.1 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending December 28. (Note that these are provisional data.)
- COVID-19 test positivity has decreased 3%, from 7.1% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending December 28 to 6.9% of tests during the week ending January 4.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 16% between the week ending December 28 and the week ending January 4, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “high,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 6% between December 25 and January 1, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have decreased 10% between the week ending December 28 and the week ending January 4.
The U.S.’s winter COVID-19 surge continues. Some data sources suggest that we may be close to the peak of this wave, but it will be another week or two before that pattern is clear. Even if we continue to see a lower disease burden than usual for the winter, SARS-CoV-2 still causes an outsized risk of severe disease and disability compared to other common viruses.
Wastewater data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN both indicate that coronavirus levels in sewage continued to increase through early January, both nationally and for all regions. WWSCAN’s data suggest that the increase may be slowing, particularly in the Midwest (which has reported the highest magnitude of virus this winter) and West Coast (which has reported the lowest), but these numbers are tentative and subject to change.
Also notable: as of yesterday, the CDC’s National Wastewater Surveillance System (NWSS) has started its latest update to the baselines used for calculating its wastewater viral activity levels. NWSS does this update every six months. Historically, the process has led to high baselines in comparison to the true lows we experienced early in the pandemic, making new surges look less concerning than other public health experts would argue they really are. See my explainer article from last summer for more details.
Healthcare system data also suggest that the winter surge may be near its peak. Emergency department visits and test positivity from the CDC’s surveillance networks both indicated plateaus or slight declines at the national level. Plus, the CDC’s disease forecasting center, which utilizes emergency department data, estimates that, as of January 7, cases are “declining or likely declining” in 32 states and “growing or likely growing” in only two states (South Dakota and Hawaii).
For parts of the country — particularly the South and West Coast states — this winter’s surge seems to be lower in magnitude than last summer’s. (Though it’s always worth emphasizing that wastewater data do not correlate precisely to infection numbers, no matter how certain some social media commentators may seem about their “estimates.”) The pattern shows that as much as public health agencies want to claim COVID-19 is now endemic and lump it in with seasonal viruses like the flu, it’s much less predictable. COVID-19 also causes more severe and long-term symptoms than other diseases, and does so at a higher rate.
But measures that protect against COVID-19 also work for other health threats, as shown by the mask blocs and advocacy groups distributing high-quality masks in southern California this week. Not only are these groups helping people protect themselves from wildfire smoke and pollutants, they are also providing protection against the spread of COVID-19 and other diseases in evacuation shelters and public indoor spaces. Community care is the best way to push back against disaster.
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