National COVID-19 trends, February 25

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February 25, 2025

State-by-state map of the U.S., with states color-coded according to "Respiratory illness activity." Green represents low, orange is moderate, red is high, purple is very high, and gray is data unavailable. Most states across the U.S. are in the moderate or high category, with a few at very high (Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, New Hampshire, Kansas, Oklahoma) and low (Alabama, North Dakota, New Mexico, Nevada). Text at the bottom of the map reads: "Data last updated on February 19, 2025 and presented through February 15, 2025. View this dataset on data.cdc.gov." — “Respiratory illness activity,” a metric that includes COVID-19, flu, and other diseases, is moderate to high throughout the U.S. as of February 15. Chart via the CDC.

Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:

About 2.6 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending February 8.
COVID-19 test positivity has decreased 2%, from 4.7% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending February 8 to 4.6% of tests during the week ending February 15.
SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 8% between the week ending February 8 and the week ending February 15, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “moderate,” per the CDC.
SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 10% between February 5 and February 12, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have decreased 12% between the week ending February 8 and the week ending February 15.

COVID-19 levels appear to be finally declining (albeit slowly) in the U.S. after a month of plateaus, with wastewater and healthcare system metrics both showing decreases in infections. Seasonal flu is also on the decline, following record levels in recent weeks. But both pathogens are still spreading at high levels and causing severe disease and chronic illness for many people.

Wastewater data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN indicate that SARS-CoV-2 levels are decreasing nationally and across most regions. Both sources reported a decline in their most recent week of data (representing mid-February) after weeks at consistent levels. The CDC reports a potential increase in the Midwest in that most recent week of data; we’ll have to see if this continues later in the month.

Healthcare system metrics for COVID-19 (test positivity, emergency department visits, hospitalizations) also decreased last week, though not by much — this is a dip, not a significant decrease. For example, the share of emergency department visits attributed to COVID-19 went from 1% for the week ending February 8 to 0.9% for the week ending February 15, according to the CDC’s surveillance network.

The CDC’s forecasting center, which uses emergency department data to estimate infection trends, reported that COVID-19 cases are “declining or likely declining” in 34 states as of February 18, including states across the East Coast and Midwest. The center reports infections are “likely growing” in only one state, Hawaii.

Seasonal flu is also finally on the decline this week, with all major flu metrics (test positivity, doctor’s visits for flu-like illness, hospitalizations, wastewater levels) going down. Flu levels remain very high, though, as this year’s record season continues.

The CDC also finally released a report about pet cats infected with bird flu, which was delayed from late January. Researchers at the CDC and Michigan’s health department found that two indoor pet cats who lived in households with dairy farms were infected with H5N1; notably, both cats’ farmworker owners refused to be tested.

The disease trends have reminded us that, even though commentators often compare COVID-19 to the flu to minimize the disease, the seasonal flu can itself be very dangerous. The CDC estimates that seasonal flu has killed 19,000 to 92,000 Americans between October 1, 2024 and February 15, 2025; it estimates 21,000 to 36,000 COVID-19 deaths over the same period.

Of course, hospitalization and death aren’t the only severe outcomes from COVID-19 — but the CDC does not calculate new Long COVID cases or other worsened chronic illness in its burden estimates. In fact, the agency has stopped collecting regular Long COVID data through its Household Pulse Survey, epidemiologist Sam Packard recently reported on Bluesky.