National COVID-19 trends, March 4

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March 4, 2025

Line chart titled, "National SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Concentrations." The Y axis is "effective concentration, copies/mL" and the X axis is time, going from March 2020 to March 2025. The chart shows COVID-19's many waves in the U.S. over the last five years; the most recent weeks of data show a smaller winter peak followed by a high plateau. — While the peak of this winter’s COVID-19 surge was lower than in prior years, our baseline between waves continues to get higher. Chart from Biobot Analytics’ “Respiratory Virus Risk Report” posted on March 3.

Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:

About 2.5 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending February 15.
COVID-19 test positivity has decreased 6%, from 4.6% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending February 15 to 4.3% of tests during the week ending February 22.
SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 15% between the week ending February 15 and the week ending February 22, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “moderate,” per the CDC.
SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 11% between February 12 and February 19, and the national wastewater trend is “medium,” per WastewaterSCAN.
Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have decreased 15% between the week ending February 15 and the week ending February 22.

COVID-19 levels in the U.S. continue to inch downward, from a high winter plateau to a potentially-still-pretty-high spring plateau. As cases were lower than expected in the last couple of months, some experts are concerned we could see more outbreaks in the spring and summer. Meanwhile, continued cuts in the federal government will make it easier for many diseases to spread by reducing surveillance resources and undermining important tools like vaccines.

Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics indicate declines in SARS-CoV-2 levels nationally and for all regions in late February. Last week, I flagged a potential increase in the Midwest; the CDC’s latest data now report a decline in that region. It’s important to remember that recent weeks’ data are always preliminary and subject to change.

Healthcare system data (test positivity, emergency department visits, hospitalizations) also show declines in COVID-19 levels across regions. The CDC’s forecasting center, which uses emergency department data for its models, estimates that COVID-19 cases are “declining or likely declining” in 27 states as of February 25. Cases are “growing or likely growing” in only three states: Texas, Tennessee, and Alaska.

Flu cases continue to go down, too: the CDC’s flu primary metrics reported declines for the second week in a row. This is good news following the record numbers of the last few weeks, but the flu season is far from over — the CDC’s flu surveillance team reported on Friday that it “expects several more weeks of flu activity.”

Unlike the seasonal flu, which is unlikely to be a concern once we get into warmer months, COVID-19 never really goes down to truly “low” levels these days. SARS-CoV-2 activity in the weeks between surges tends to be several times higher than the real lows we experienced in 2020 and 2021 when public health measures were widespread, based on the wastewater data providers that have tracked the disease consistently this whole time. (It’s difficult to extrapolate actual case numbers from those wastewater data, though.)

Thanks to the collective lack of safety measures now, combined with the constant threat of new variants, health experts I follow are concerned that we may see only a brief respite before disease levels go up again. Worth noting: Americans who are over age 65 and/or immunocompromised are eligible for a second dose of this season’s COVID-19 vaccines ahead of an anticipated summer surge.

And our federal health agencies will be even less equipped to respond to new outbreaks this summer than they were in past years. Recent cuts to CDC staff have included people who were working on laboratory safety and testing for different health threats, including H5N1 bird flu, POLITICO reported last week. Experts are also sounding the alarm about measles, after a child in Texas was the first to die of this disease in a decade; health agencies have reported 146 measles cases in Texas and about 20 more in other states as of late February.

Update, March 5: Some fired CDC scientists, including those in the Laboratory Leadership Service, have had now their jobs reinstated, but the future of these positions is still unclear.