Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1.7 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending March 22.
- COVID-19 test positivity has stayed fairly consistent, with 3.6% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending March 22 and 3.7% of tests returning positive results during the week ending March 29.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 7% between the week ending March 22 and the week ending March 29, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 7% between March 19 and March 26, and the national wastewater trend is “medium,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have decreased 4% between the week ending March 22 and the week ending March 29.
COVID-19 spread in the U.S. remains at a moderate plateau: disease levels have neither increased nor decreased beyond small changes for the last month. While most metrics report stability or minor declines, there are a few signals of potential outbreaks in the Northeast. And seasonal diseases are on the decline, but measles continues to be a concern.
Wastewater data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN (no Biobot update this week) show that SARS-CoV-2 levels in sewage continue to stay fairly consistent. The CDC reported a slight decline in its national average for the week ending March 29, while WWSCAN reported a slight uptick for the week ending March 26; but both sources show the same overall pattern over the last few weeks.
Healthcare system metrics show a similar picture. For example, test positivity from the network of labs reporting to the CDC has hovered between 3.6% and 3.8% since the beginning of March. The CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center, which uses emergency department data for its modeling, estimates that COVID-19 cases are “declining or likely declining” in 27 states and “not changing” in 16 states, as of April 1.
Last week, I noted that wastewater data showed some signs of potential increased COVID-19 spread in parts of the Northeast. WastewaterSCAN’s data continue to show this trend, with the organization reporting SARS-CoV-2 increases at some testing sites in New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Vermont. The CDC also reported slight increases in test positivity for federal health regions 1 and 2, which include these states. I’ll be watching whether this trend continues in future weeks.
Meanwhile, flu season is approaching its end, as the CDC’s main seasonal influenza metrics have reported declines for the last few weeks. Most states report minimal, low, or moderate levels of respiratory illness, as of March 29 — a major come-down from the record-highs reported earlier in the winter. Other seasonal viruses like RSV and norovirus are also on the decline.
COVID-19 levels tend to remain moderate to high year-round, as the U.S. has abandoned widespread measures to control the virus. Anti-vax and anti-public health sentiments have also contributed to the spread of measles, which just claimed another pediatric death in Texas. The CDC reports over 600 confirmed measles cases across 22 states, as of April 3 — and epidemiologists suspect that number may be a significant undercount.
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