Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 2 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending March 15.
- COVID-19 test positivity has stayed fairly consistent, with 3.7% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending March 15 and 3.6% of tests returning positive results during the week ending March 22.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 14% between the week ending March 15 and the week ending March 22, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 4% between March 12 and March 19, and the national wastewater trend is “medium,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness have decreased 15% between the week ending March 15 and the week ending March 22.
The U.S. remains in a lull between COVID-19 surges: disease spread continues to be at similar, moderate levels to what we’ve seen for the last month. While national metrics all report plateaus or slight declines, there are indicators of potential early-spring increases in some places. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s cuts to local public health funding may damage future surveillance efforts.
The three major wastewater data providers (the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics) all reported declines in SARS-CoV-2 spread at the national level in late March. These sources are back in alignment after WWSCAN and the CDC reported slight increases last week. All three indicate that viral levels have stayed fairly consistent in recent weeks; WWSCAN, for example, reports a change of just 1% between the national average on February 26 and the national average on March 19.
By region: the South and Midwest continue to report higher SARS-CoV-2 levels, but disease spread appears to be trending down in these regions. The CDC’s disease forecasting center estimates that infections are “declining or likely declining” in 31 states as of March 25, including states across these two regions. The center estimates infections are only “likely growing” in one state, Washington.
Given this winter’s lower-than-usual COVID-19 burden, some health experts are concerned that we could see an earlier and/or higher spring or summer surge than past years. In 2023 and 2024, spring lulls continued until June, but this year may be different — especially considering that disease levels haven’t gone down as much as we usually see in late winter/early spring.
Indeed, I noticed a couple of signs this week of potential increasing COVID-19 spread in parts of the Northeast. WastewaterSCAN has reported increases in SARS-CoV-2 levels for some wastewater testing sites in New Jersey, New Hampshire, and Maine in mid-March, and New York State’s wastewater surveillance program has also reported recent increases at sites in New York City and Long Island.
“COVID-19 cases are increasing and flu is still spreading in NYC,” the city’s health department posted on Twitter/X yesterday, adding a recommendation to wear a well-fitting mask in crowded indoor settings. But this behavior is under threat right now as the state’s governor, Kathy Hochul, attempts to push a mask ban through the state budget. New Yorkers can advocate against a mask ban using this call script.
The federal government also recently threatened state and local public health departments: last week, along with research grants, the Trump administration cut funding to health agencies through the CDC. These cuts may impact vaccination records, wastewater surveillance, and other aspects of health infrastructure — I plan to share more about specific impacts for COVID-19 and Long COVID work as we learn them.
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[…] Last week, I noted that wastewater data showed some signs of potential increased COVID-19 spread in parts of the Northeast. WastewaterSCAN’s data continue to show this trend, with the organization reporting SARS-CoV-2 increases at some testing sites in New Jersey, Massachusetts, and Vermont. The CDC also reported slight increases in test positivity for federal health regions 1 and 2, which include these states. I’ll be watching whether this trend continues in future weeks. […]
[…] The Sick Times: National COVID-19 trends, April 1 […]