Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 0.8 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending May 24.
- COVID-19 test positivity increased slightly, from 2.7% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending May 24 to 2.8% during the week ending May 31.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 2% between the week ending May 24 and the week ending May 31, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 11% between May 21 and May 28, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
A summer COVID-19 surge is likely on the way in the U.S. While the disease is still spreading at more moderate levels in most of the country, there are signals of increased viral spread in parts of the West and East Coasts. New variants are likely to accelerate outbreaks from summer travel and gatherings. And remember, all COVID-19 data are shared with delays, so disease levels are likely higher now than in the most recent available reports.
SARS-CoV-2 levels in U.S. wastewater have likely passed the lowest they will be for several months, according to data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics. National averages from all three data providers have stopped declining; the CDC reports an increase of 2% between May 24 and May 31, while WWSCAN reports a more pronounced increase of 11% between May 21 and 28.
WWSCAN changed its national COVID-19 trend to “high” this week — last week, it was “low.” Notably, WWSCAN bases these trends on the direction in which average wastewater levels are moving, not just the concentration. The CDC, which bases its wastewater viral activity levels on concentration only, also changed its national COVID-19 trend from “very low” to “low.”
West Coast states such as California, Oregon, Alaska, Arizona, and Hawaii continue to report increased SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater and increased COVID-19 test positivity rates. Some parts of the Northeast and South are also reporting potential increases for these metrics, though the trends are less clear; for example, WWSCAN reports a more pronounced increase in average SARS-CoV-2 levels in the Northeast in late May than the CDC does.
The CDC’s disease forecasting center estimates that COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in six states as of June 3: Florida, New Mexico, Hawaii, California, Maryland, and Washington D.C. Cases are “not changing” in 25 states and “declining or likely declining” in 14 states, per the center’s estimates.
In a rare piece of good news for infectious disease data, University of Missouri virologist Marc Johnson and colleagues recently unveiled a new dashboard sharing early results from a massive wastewater surveillance project. The project is testing sewage for a wide variety of pathogens by sequencing all available genetic data. Currently, the dashboard includes data for about 50 different viral strains across five cities.
“This is version 1.0 of the dashboard and only represents a tiny fraction (~0.01%) of the data,” Johnson wrote in a Twitter/X thread introducing the site. “There are many more interesting things in the data that we hope to share in the future.” To me, the new dashboard is a reminder that, while the landscape for COVID-19 tracking may seem dire these days, some scientists continue to look for new and improved ways to follow this and other dangerous diseases.
