Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 0.7 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending April 4.
- COVID-19 test positivity decreased slightly, from 2.1% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending March 28 to 1.8% positive during the week ending April 4.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 21% between March 28 and April 4, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “very low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 18% between March 25 and April 1 and the national wastewater trend is “medium,” per WastewaterSCAN.
COVID-19 levels remain low to moderate across most of the U.S. as of early April, as we are in a lull between surges. Data trackers are closely watching the BA.3.2 variant (also called “Cicada”); it may be driving outbreaks in select locations, but is not causing major increases yet.
Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all report declines and lower SARS-CoV-2 levels across most of the U.S. Recent national averages from both WWSCAN and Biobot — which have more reliable long-term data than the CDC — have dipped to the lowest numbers reported in several years. (Note: Biobot appears to now be posting reports every other week, rather than weekly.)
The CDC’s wastewater dashboard also reports “very low” SARS-CoV-2 activity in wastewater, both nationally and in most regions. The South is an exception, with a couple of states reporting “high” SARS-CoV-2 activity. Two of those three states with “high” levels (West Virginia and Mississippi) have very limited reporting, which may skew their data, but I believe COVID-19 is truly spreading more in this region compared to others given that several other Southern states report “low” as opposed to “very low” levels.
Also notable: after years of slowly shifting color schemes on its COVID-19 charts to be more muted, the CDC has actually brought reds and oranges back to its wastewater map. The updated chart now displays purple for “very high,” red for “high,” and orange for “moderate.” A note on the wastewater dashboard explains this change is for “user experience and consistency across CDC webpages,” though I wonder if years of criticism has played any role.
Healthcare system data also report low COVID-19 levels across most of the country. The CDC’s national test positivity estimate continues to get lower, dropping under 2% for the first time since 2021. And it is low and/or declining in all health regions. The agency’s modeled estimates from emergency department data also indicate COVID-19 cases are “declining or likely declining” in 38 states and not growing anywhere.
BA.3.2 (“Cicada”) is tricky to spot in the latest data. Last week, I flagged increasing test positivity in New York and New Jersey; as of April 4, that metric is declining again. I also flagged very high SARS-CoV-2 levels at a WWSCAN testing site in Oswego, New York; those levels have declined in newer samples, though the WWSCAN dashboard still marks this testing site and others in the Northeast as “high.” So, it’s possible this New York increase was an outbreak from a different cause or a reporting issue rather than Cicada — but it’s also possible that the variant is still gaining enough ground in Northeast states to truly cause increases.
Cicada remains a variant to watch, despite the data messiness. It appears to be growing in prevalence in the U.S., with some modelers suggesting the CDC’s latest estimates have undercounted it. It also continues to spread globally, and children continue to show up disproportionately in publicly-shared case data. Children are also at risk from other viruses circulating at higher levels right now, including the respiratory viruses human metapneumovirus (HMPV), rhinovirus (RV), and enterovirus (EV), and gastrointestinal viruses norovirus and rotavirus.
