Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 0.8 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending June 28.
- COVID-19 test positivity data are not available for the week ending July 5; this metric was slowly increasing as of late June.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 9% between the week ending June 28 and the week ending July 5, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 12% between June 24 and July 1, and the national wastewater trend is “medium,” per WastewaterSCAN.
A summer COVID-19 wave has arrived in the U.S., but so far, it is hitting some parts of the country much harder than others. Cases continue to increase across the South and West Coast, while remaining relatively stable for the Northeast and Midwest. As data are updated with one- to two-week delays, current levels in these regions may be much higher than reported.
Wastewater data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN indicate modest increases in the national average of SARS-CoV-2 levels in sewage for early July. (Still no report from Biobot Analytics this week.) But at the regional level, it’s clear that outbreaks are intensifying across the South and West.
As of July 5, the CDC reports that wastewater viral activity levels are “high” in Florida, Alabama, Alaska, and Hawaii, and “moderate” in California, Nevada, Colorado, Louisiana, and South Carolina. Since the CDC’s activity levels are based on already-high baselines, I’d say people in these states should be very wary of infection right now.
In California, which has one of the more robust wastewater testing networks (57 sites across the state), the health department reports that statewide SARS-CoV-2 levels have increased by about 55% between June 19 and July 10. Other states are likely seeing similar patterns but not able to report them as comprehensively.
The CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center estimates that COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in 25 states as of July 8, including states across the South, some on the West Coast, and some in the Midwest. It is important to note that our latest data don’t yet fully account for the July 4 holiday weekend, which is a major driver of travel and gatherings.
This week, the CDC did not update its COVID-19 test positivity data, which is one of the primary metrics I use for these updates. Similar data from the pharmacy chain Walgreens do show a significant increase in test positivity in June and early July; while the recent numbers reflect relatively few tests (around 1,500 to 2,000 per week, compared to over 30,000 per week in the CDC dataset), this is still a concerning signal.
As COVID-19 cases increase yet again, it’s only getting harder to track the disease. Not only are tests difficult to find — as shown by Walgreens’ low numbers and the continued dearth of variant surveillance data — but also, the Supreme Court just enabled mass firings across federal health agencies. The Trump administration, aided by the court and Congress, continues to dismantle vital public health infrastructure.
