Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 2 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending August 16.
- COVID-19 test positivity increased moderately, from 10.2% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending August 16 to 11.2% during the week ending August 23.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 1% between the week ending August 16 and the week ending August 23, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “moderate,” per the CDC (which recently revised its activity level categories).
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 6% between August 13 and August 20, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
COVID-19 spread remains high across the U.S. as our summer surge continues into early fall. All major metrics went up through late August, though some infectious disease experts predict this wave may peak soon. Meanwhile, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has officially made it much more difficult for Americans under age 65 to receive this year’s COVID-19 vaccines by limiting who is eligible on the products’ labels.
Wastewater data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN show significant — but slowing — increases in national SARS-CoV-2 spread in recent weeks. After a big jump in early August (over 50%), the CDC’s estimated national wastewater viral activity level went up by 15% between August 9 and 16, then decreased by 1% between August 16 and 23. These are preliminary data, however, and may change in the next update. Also, remember that the agency recently revised its activity level categories to downplay continued coronavirus spread. (The CDC’s wastewater dashboard was briefly unavailable last week but appears to be back to its usual update schedule now.)
Week-over-week increases reported by WastewaterSCAN have also slowed, though less dramatically: from 13% between July 30 and August 6 to 6% between August 13 and 20. Biobot Analytics posted an update on August 22 reporting increases in its wastewater surveillance network through mid-August, but has not shared one for the following week yet.
Regional wastewater data as well as healthcare system data suggest that this summer’s COVID-19 wave may have started to peak in some places. Test positivity data from the CDC’s network report preliminary declines for some Northeast and Midwest states. Plus, the agency’s infectious disease forecasting center estimates that COVID-19 cases are “declining or likely declining” in four states as of August 26: Hawaii, Arizona, Mississippi, and Tennessee. However, cases are “growing or likely growing” in 31 states, per the center, including many others across all regions.
After several weeks without updates, the CDC has resumed sharing estimates of SARS-CoV-2 variant prevalence in the U.S. — now on a schedule of every four weeks (previously every two weeks). The latest estimate reports that variant XFG caused the vast majority of COVID-19 cases in August, aligning with what other independent variant experts previously reported. But another valuable COVID-19 dashboard, Walgreens’ testing index, appears to be no longer available as of last week.
As a new school year gets underway across the U.S., young children remain vulnerable to COVID-19 and Long COVID: emergency department visits for COVID-19 were higher for children under 12 than any other age group in late August. But children will face new barriers to getting vaccinated following last week’s FDA decision, as will adults under age 65.
It’s currently unclear exactly how the new FDA labels will be implemented (as different insurance companies and pharmacy chains may decide on different policies), but a New York Times report suggests access challenges may vary by state. Some states may push back on the FDA restrictions: New Mexico’s health department recently ruled to make COVID-19 vaccines broadly accessible in that state. Other state agencies may take similar approaches; we will share more updates as they become available.
