Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1.2 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending August 2.
- COVID-19 test positivity increased moderately, from 8.3% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending August 2 to 8.9% during the week ending August 9.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 55% between the week ending August 2 and the week ending August 9, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC. (See below about the CDC revising its categories.)
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 10% between July 29 and August 6, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
The U.S.’s summer COVID-19 surge continues, with cases increasing across all regions through early August, driven by travel and gatherings as well as the variant XFG. Despite the obvious increases in COVID-19 spread, the CDC’s wastewater dashboard — which recently updated its methodology — downplays current viral activity levels as “low.”
Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all show continued increases in SARS-CoV-2 levels at wastewater testing sites nationwide. Recent levels are much lower than the peaks of summer surges in 2023 and 2024, but this year’s summer wave started later than in prior years and now coincides directly with children starting their school years.
The CDC reported a 55% increase in its national wastewater viral activity level between August 2 and August 9, yet surprisingly classifies SARS-CoV-2 activity as “low.” That’s because the agency revised its wastewater categories on Friday — and continued a long-running pattern in which the agency minimizes COVID-19’s continued risk in its data presentation.
CDC thresholds for COVID-19 to be marked as “low” (compared to “very low”) and “moderate” have increased by about 0.5 on the CDC’s wastewater viral activity level scale, and the threshold for “high” increased by 0.8. And this scale itself is a novel metric that CDC staff calculate by comparing current SARS-CoV-2 concentrations in wastewater to prior ones, meaning that it starts with an already-substantial baseline of constant COVID-19 spread.
Adding confusion, the top of the dashboard claims the current national activity level is “low” even though the latest data point in the CDC’s chart, 3.7, meets the threshold for “moderate.” The agency also made other changes to its wastewater data methods last week, which are described in detail here.
Healthcare system data also report increases in COVID-19 spread across the U.S., with the highest levels still in the West and South. Test positivity continues to go up in every region as of August 9, while the CDC’s forecasting center estimates that cases are “growing or likely growing” in 34 states as of August 12. Cases are “not changing” in 14 states and not declining in any states, per the center.
The variant XFG is now likely dominant in the U.S. according to wastewater data, though the CDC’s network of labs sequencing individual test samples still reports outdated information. In a Twitter/X thread summarizing SARS-CoV-2’s evolution since 2023, virologist and variant expert Marc Johnson wrote that XFG is “the first lineage to reach world dominance (it seems) in a year.”
“I’m not sure what is next, but we are all still keeping an eye on BA.3.2,” Johnson wrote, referring to a newer lineage that has many novel mutations compared to currently-circulating strains.
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[…] data, however, and may change in the next update. Also, remember that the agency recently revised its activity level categories to downplay continued coronavirus spread. (The CDC’s wastewater dashboard was briefly unavailable […]