Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 2.3 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending August 30.
- COVID-19 test positivity decreased slightly, from 11.2% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending August 30 to 10.8% during the week ending September 6.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has increased 21% between the week ending August 30 and the week ending September 6, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “high,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 1% between August 27 and September 3, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
The latest COVID-19 data offer conflicting information about whether or not we’ve passed the peak of this year’s summer/early fall surge. While test positivity and emergency department visit numbers suggest we have, at least in some parts of the country, wastewater surveillance data report widespread increases through early September.
Wastewater data from the CDC report a stark increase in SARS-CoV-2 activity for the week ending September 6: the agency’s estimated national viral activity level went up 21% from the week ending August 30, and averages for all four regions also went up. And the CDC’s dashboard finally labels national wastewater SARS-CoV-2 activity as “high” for the first time since this wave started. (Worth noting, though: the CDC’s wastewater data are preliminary and often shift significantly in later updates.)
WastewaterSCAN and Biobot Analytics similarly report national increases in early September, but there are differences in their regional data. WWSCAN reports potential decreases in the Northeast and Midwest, while Biobot reports a potential decrease in the South and levels “holding steady” in the West.
In contrast, healthcare system data from the CDC report declining COVID-19 levels in early September. National test positivity (from the network of labs reporting to the agency) has declined for two weeks in a row as of September 6. Test positivity also went down for some states in the South and West, and the CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center estimates that states in those regions also have “declining or likely declining” cases as of September 9.
The disagreement between data sources is confusing, in part because wastewater surveillance is typically considered a leading indicator of disease trends — meaning a peak should show up there before it does in healthcare system data. But test positivity can also be a leading indicator compared to hospitalizations. My best guess at interpreting this: COVID-19 is still going up in some places and down in others, and the test positivity data are reflecting more of the latter while wastewater data reflect more of the former.
We also don’t have much information yet on how many people are getting updated COVID-19 vaccines. The CDC typically starts to share vaccination data by mid-September, but hasn’t yet for fall 2025. Only 23% of adults and 13% of children received last fall’s COVID-19 shots, and the numbers this year will likely be lower as the Trump administration restricts access. I, like many other health journalists, will be following the CDC’s vaccine advisory committee meeting later this week — a committee now full of COVID-19 deniers.
Speaking of denial: a new CDC report, published last week, claims that COVID-19 is no longer a leading cause of death in the U.S. as of 2024. The report is based on death certificate data, which have undercounted COVID-19 deaths since the start of the pandemic (something I covered extensively as a journalism fellow at MuckRock); this pattern has likely gotten worse as testing became less available in recent years. The agency has also not released any updates on deaths from Long COVID since early 2024.
