Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 2.5 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending September 6.
- COVID-19 test positivity decreased significantly, from 10.9% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending September 6 to 9.5% during the week ending September 13.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater has decreased 12% between the week ending September 6 and the week ending September 13, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “high,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 15% between September 3 and September 10, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
After an uncertain few weeks, all available metrics now agree that the U.S. has passed the peak of its summer/early fall COVID-19 surge. But even as disease levels trend down, there is still a lot of SARS-CoV-2 going around, and levels are unlikely to drop too much further as we start getting into colder weather. And, though updated vaccines are available, there are still barriers to accessing them.
For the first time since this latest wave started in June, all three major wastewater data providers (the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics) report that the national average for SARS-CoV-2 levels is declining, as of mid-September. The CDC and Biobot also report decreases in all four U.S. regions; WWSCAN seems to mostly agree, but reports a plateau in the West.
The wastewater trends now align better with healthcare system data: test positivity and emergency department visits have reported declines in national averages for a couple of weeks now. National test positivity (calculated from a network of labs reporting to the CDC) was 9.5% for the week ending September 13, down from a peak of 11.8% (week ending August 23).
But there are still some places where this COVID-19 wave has not reached its peak yet. The CDC’s disease forecasting center estimates that COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in nine states as of September 16, including New York, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, and other Northeast and upper Midwest states. Cases are “declining or likely declining” in 24 states, per the center.
And for some states and regions where this wave has already passed its peak, COVID-19 levels remain quite high even as they decline. For example, in health region six (Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas), which I flagged in August, test positivity has declined significantly from its peak of 18.4% but is still at 11% as of September 13. Wastewater SARS-CoV-2 activity is also still “high” in Texas and “very high” in Louisiana and Arkansas, per the CDC.
On Friday, the CDC’s vaccine advisory committee — a group handpicked by Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and full of COVID-deniers — voted that this fall’s COVID-19 vaccines should be available to all Americans and covered by insurance, but that people should discuss the “risks and benefits” of vaccination with healthcare providers. While the decision was not as restrictive as some public health experts had feared, federal regulations for this year’s vaccines will still make it more difficult for many people to get the shots, particularly for people who don’t have insurance or a primary care provider. We will keep following and sharing updates on this fall’s vaccines.
