National COVID-19 trends data remain largely unavailable this week from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Out of the four metrics usually included in these updates, only one was updated in the last week:
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 1% between October 8 and October 15, and the national wastewater trend is “medium,” per WastewaterSCAN.
We’ve now passed one month into the U.S. government shutdown — and one month without COVID-19 or other infectious disease data updates from the CDC. COVID-19 levels seem to still be in a lull between waves in much of the country, based on available sources, but the situation is very uncertain. And there are signs of flu and RSV spread picking up.
National wastewater estimates from WastewaterSCAN and Biobot Analytics suggest that SARS-CoV-2 levels are at a moderate-disease-spread plateau as of mid-October. WWSCAN’s latest national averages are slightly below the lowest levels reported in both spring 2025 and early fall 2024, though still several times higher than the true lows from 2021 and 2022. Healthcare claims data shared on Yale’s PopHIVE dashboard also indicate declines in COVID-19 spread through mid-October.
Regional and state-level data from WWSCAN and Biobot, as well as state health departments, suggest that COVID-19 levels are moderate or low and relatively stable throughout much of the country. But there are a few spots where late-fall COVID-19 outbreaks might be starting, and we are approaching the season for flu and RSV. As in prior weeks, my reporting here is based on state wastewater dashboards and Caitlin Rivers’ Outbreak Outlook newsletter.
Missouri is one state with lower SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater (and comprehensive sewage testing), according to the dashboard run by the health department and University of Missouri researchers. Notably, several wastewater testing sites in the state are marked as “below detection” on the SARS-CoV-2 trends map, meaning the viral level in recent samples from these sites was too low to show up in testing. Several wastewater testing sites in Virginia are similarly marked as “below detection” for SARS-CoV-2 on that state’s dashboard.
And here’s a bit of good data news, particularly for readers in New York State: New York’s wastewater dashboard is finally back to reporting data for all participating sewersheds. We had incomplete data for many months while scientists consolidated the program to run all through one state-run lab. As COVID-19 data commentator Patrick Vaughan (@patrickthebiosteamist) explained in a video on TikTok, the new system is more standardized and will likely be easier for the state to continue going forward, but loses consistency with older records.
While COVID-19 trends are declining or stagnant in most places reporting data, there are a few notable exceptions. Test positivity went up slightly in Hawaii. Viral levels in wastewater went up significantly in Indiana, though note these are preliminary data and may change. New Hampshire, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and West Virginia also all reported increasing viral levels at some wastewater testing sites. And reported COVID-19 cases are trending up in Montana.
It’s difficult to paint a more comprehensive picture with these limited state-level data. Recent stories by Tim Henderson at Stateline (republished by The Sick Times) and Laura Weiss at Prism echo what I’ve been writing here for weeks: this data blackout, along with other cuts to the CDC under Trump, makes it even harder for Americans to protect themselves during the ongoing pandemic. “There’s a concerted effort to disassemble the CDC,” Demetre Daskalakis, a CDC official who recently resigned, told Prism.
