Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 0.7 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending November 1.
- COVID-19 test positivity stayed about the same, with 2.85% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending November 1 and 2.82% positive during the week ending November 8.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 10% between October 29 and November 5, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness increased 17% between the week ending November 1 and the week ending November 8, though this metric is below the level indicating the official start of flu season.
CDC infectious disease data are starting to resume updates as the government shutdown ended last week, but some metrics remain unavailable. The data we do have suggest that we’re at the start of the U.S.’s winter COVID-19 wave, with cases rising particularly in the Northeast and Midwest, as well as a flu season that might be worse than usual due to a variant of that virus.
COVID-19 metrics from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN indicate that much of the country has passed the lowest disease levels that we will see for a while, as cases start going up with indoor travel and gatherings. At WWSCAN, the national average is increasing and at medium concentration as of early November, for a trend level of “high.” (Remember that WWSCAN bases its disease trends on both concentration and recent direction, unlike the CDC’s and most other wastewater dashboards, which use only the concentration.)
The CDC has not updated its wastewater data yet; a note at the top of the National Wastewater Surveillance System page says that data will be updated this Friday, November 21, “to allow for data review with jurisdictions.” The agency also hasn’t updated its main COVID-19 data page, but has updated COVID-19 metrics at other pages for “respiratory viruses,” hospitalizations, and test positivity. These healthcare system metrics are low and stable nationally but starting to increase in some regions.
Also back this week: the CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center, which uses emergency department data to model trends by state. As of November 11, the center estimates that COVID-19 cases are “growing or likely growing” in 20 states, including states across the Northeast, Midwest, and South. States where infections are more definitively “growing” include Pennsylvania, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Louisiana, and New Mexico. COVID-19 cases are also “declining or likely declining” in 9 states and “not changing” in 18 states, per the center.
State-level wastewater data pages tell a similar story. SARS-CoV-2 levels in wastewater are going up at some testing sites in New Haven, Connecticut, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Indiana (though the increase in Indiana’s statewide average is not as severe as was reported in preliminary data a couple of weeks ago). WWSCAN similarly reports increases at some testing sites in the Northeast and Midwest.
Along with COVID-19, it will be worth paying attention to the flu this winter. Epidemiologists and public health experts are sounding the alarm that this may be a worse-than-average flu season, as the main circulating flu variant in the U.S. is one also driving early surges in the U.K., Canada, and Japan — and is not well-matched to this year’s flu vaccine. Flu indicators from the CDC are starting to increase; the agency’s forecasting center reports that flu cases are “growing or likely growing” in 39 states.
In more flu news: last week, health officials in Washington state reported a human case of bird flu. This is the first human case in the U.S. since February, and the very first human case from a strain called H5N5 (previously detected only in animals). Read more about bird flu and how you can help farmworkers in our explainer from August.
