Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1.4 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending February 21.
- COVID-19 test positivity decreased slightly, from 4.6% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending February 14 to 4.3% positive during the week ending February 21.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 9% between February 14 and February 21, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “moderate,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 2% between February 11 and February 18 and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness decreased 4% between the week ending February 14 and the week ending February 21, and this metric remains at a high level.
The COVID-19 picture in the U.S. hasn’t changed much over the last month: national disease levels are declining, but very slowly, as some parts of the country (particularly in the Midwest and South) remain disease hotspots even as we head into the spring. Flu is similarly still at high levels even as metrics have dropped significantly from their peak in January.
Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all report declines at the national level and for most regions through late February. However, as I noted two weeks ago, these declines are happening much more slowly than we’ve seen in prior winters, suggesting that moderate-to-high disease levels will continue for a few more weeks in many places. The Midwest has reported higher levels than other regions throughout this winter wave.
The wastewater data also suggest that COVID-19 is still going up in some parts of the country, though the surveillance sources disagree about where — likely due to differences in their testing sites and reporting mechanisms. The CDC reports a potential increase in the Northeast, though this may be driven by a small number of sites in New York State and Rhode Island where levels are high. Test positivity went down in the New York/New Jersey region for the week ending February 21 after an increase the prior week.
Meanwhile, WWSCAN reports multiple weeks of increases in the South, particularly at some testing sites in Georgia, Texas, North Carolina, and Maryland. These potential increases also show up in the CDC’s regional test positivity data and emergency department visits: the agency’s modeling center (which uses ED data) estimates that cases are “growing or likely growing” in six states as of February 24, all of them in the South and mid-Atlantic regions.
In better news, the forecasting center estimates that cases are “declining or likely declining” in 27 states, including states across all other regions.
There is still a lot of flu circulating in the U.S., too, driven by the influenza B strain. As of late February, the rate of healthcare visits for influenza-like illness is much lower than its peak in early January (coming down from 8.3% to 4.4%). But it’s still well above the level signifying flu season (3.1%). Test positivity and hospitalizations for flu remain high as well, though these metrics have also declined in recent weeks.
Adding to the airborne virus risks, rates of RSV have been increasing in February. “It’s incredibly late in the season for RSV to show its teeth,” Katelyn Jetelina wrote in the Your Local Epidemiologist newsletter this week. RSV poses the most danger to infants and older adults; public health agencies recommend that pregnant people and those over age 50 consider vaccination for RSV, and preventative monoclonal antibodies are available for infants.
