Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 1.3 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending December 27.
- COVID-19 test positivity moderately increased, from 4.3% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending December 27 to 5% positive during the week ending January 3.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 41% between December 27 and January 3, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “high,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater increased 14% between December 24 and December 31, and the national wastewater trend is “high,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness decreased 14% between the week ending December 27 and the week ending January 3, but this metric remains at a high level.
Our record-high flu season may have peaked in the U.S. as of early January, but levels of that disease remain very high while COVID-19 rates continue to increase across most of the country. This winter is shaping up to be a long one for airborne virus spread.
Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics all report increasing national SARS-CoV-2 levels as of early January, following the same pattern we’ve seen since late November. From WWSCAN and Biobot, which have more consistent long-term data, this winter’s increases have not been as dramatic as we’ve seen in prior years. But we don’t seem to be near the peak of this surge.
From the CDC, wastewater trends remain inconsistent — going up sharply one week, then more moderately the next — which I continue to think may be due to data reporting delays. Notably, though, the agency updated its national wastewater viral activity level to “high” this week, which I translate as actually very high given that the CDC reporting system starts with an already-elevated baseline.
The Midwest is the biggest regional hotspot for COVID-19 spread, followed closely by the Northeast, according to both wastewater and test positivity data. Health region 5, which includes Great Lakes states, reported 7% test positivity for the week ending January 3 (from a CDC surveillance network), compared to 1.6% for health region 9, including California and other Southwest states.
Flu metrics continue to tower over COVID-19 metrics: nationally, flu test positivity was about 25% for the week ending January 3, compared to 5% for SARS-CoV-2. This number, as well as other major flu metrics, has decreased from December 27 to January 3, suggesting that the flu season may have reached its peak.
But these data are preliminary, and flu levels remain incredibly high even if they are trending down: recent levels of doctor’s visits for flu-like illness were the highest reported in over 20 years, according to epidemiologist Caitlin Rivers. Per the CDC, 44 states have “high or very high” flu-like illness levels as of early January, including 14 at the highest possible tier: Colorado, Georgia, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina, and Tennessee.
While flu continues to inspire more mainstream news headlines, both it and COVID-19 warrant extra airborne pathogen precautions right now. Given COVID-19’s relatively slower increase in recent weeks and the fact that this disease does not seem to have peaked yet (as it usually does in late December/early January), we could be in for a longer season of high virus levels than in prior years. It’s a good time to stock up on masks and tests if you can; I have recently been using the joint COVID-19 and flu rapid tests a lot myself.
