Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 0.9 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending March 14.
- COVID-19 test positivity decreased significantly, from 3.4% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending March 7 to 2.5% positive during the week ending March 14.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 33% between March 7 and March 14, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 5% between March 4 and March 11 and the national wastewater trend is “medium,” per WastewaterSCAN.
- Healthcare visits for influenza-like illness decreased 12% between the week ending March 7 and the week ending March 14, and this metric is now at a moderate level.
The U.S.’s long winter COVID-19 wave is slowly coming to an end: all major metrics report declines or plateaus in SARS-CoV-2 spread across the country as of mid-March. Flu and RSV cases are declining, too. Recent SARS-CoV-2 levels are on the lower end compared to the last three years of data, but still far above the true lows early in the pandemic when precautions were widespread.
Wastewater data from the CDC and WastewaterSCAN both report declining national and regional averages of SARS-CoV-2 levels in sewage. In the Midwest and Northeast, recent viral levels are about one-fourth of the levels reported during this wave’s peak in early January. (Biobot Analytics has not posted an update yet this week.)
However, I’m still keeping an eye on the South, where wastewater data reported an increase last week. The CDC reports that viral levels in the South have declined significantly during the week ending March 14 after an increase in the week ending March 7. CDC levels often fluctuate dramatically due to uneven testing and reporting delays, so it’s possible that the South’s average could go back up next week. Meanwhile, WWSCAN reports a potential uptick in the Northeast in its most recent data.
Healthcare system metrics also report declines across the U.S. The CDC’s national average of COVID-19 test positivity (reported by a network of labs still conducting PCR tests) dropped to 2.5% for the week ending March 14 — the lowest this metric has been since 2022. Test positivity was also declining or at a plateau in all health regions for the week ending March 14.
Plus, the CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center (which uses emergency department data for its modeling) estimates that COVID-19 cases are “declining or likely declining” in 45 states as of March 17, and are not growing in any states. Only 0.4% of emergency department visits during the week ending March 14 were for COVID-19 — though it is always worth noting that testing is much less prevalent in healthcare settings now than it was in early years of the pandemic.
Flu levels are going down across the U.S., too. The share of healthcare visits attributed to flu-like illness dropped to 3.3% for the week ending March 14, getting pretty close to the baseline of 3.1% that indicates we are no longer in flu season. RSV levels are declining as well, but remain high as this disease peaked later than usual this winter.
A recent paper from researchers at the CDC and major medical institutions underscores the need for public health protections specifically for the youngest children. The study analyzed data on children under age two who were admitted to intensive care units with RSV, COVID-19, or both between November 2023 and March 2024. While both viruses cause severe disease, children with COVID-19 were more likely to require ventilation and experience other adverse outcomes compared to those with RSV.
