Here are the latest national COVID-19 trends, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and major wastewater surveillance providers:
- About 0.2 in every 100,000 people were hospitalized for COVID-19 during the week ending May 16.
- COVID-19 test positivity stayed consistent, with 0.85% of COVID-19 tests returning positive results during the week ending May 9 and 0.83% positive during the week ending May 16.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater stayed consistent between May 9 and May 16, and the national wastewater viral activity level is “very low,” per the CDC.
- SARS-CoV-2 concentration in wastewater decreased 1% between May 6 and May 13 and the national wastewater trend is “low,” per WastewaterSCAN.
In the weeks that I’ve been away, U.S. COVID-19 metrics have remained very low, with wastewater surveillance providers reporting their lowest national averages in several years. However, the most recent data suggest the lull may come to an end soon, as cases may be starting to increase in parts of the South.
Wastewater data from the CDC, WastewaterSCAN, and Biobot Analytics have all reported very low SARS-CoV-2 levels nationally and across regions through mid-May. Recent national averages from WWSCAN, which has the most consistent long-term data, are the lowest this organization has reported since spring 2021. But, as I have noted in past weeks, we don’t fully understand the ratio of viral levels in wastewater to actual infections (especially with continued new variants).
Test positivity from the CDC’s PCR testing network has also remained very low. The national average of COVID-19 tests returning positive results has even dropped under 1% in recent weeks, compared to a usual low of 2-4% in lulls between surges.
At a regional level, though, this CDC testing network reports potential increases in test positivity in the South, particularly in the Mid-Atlantic states (health region 3). The CDC’s infectious disease forecasting center similarly estimates that COVID-19 cases are “growing” in Georgia, Florida, and Louisiana and “likely growing” in Hawaii as of May 19. Meanwhile, cases are “declining or likely declining” in 14 states and “not changing” in 19 states, per the center.
The variant BA.3.2 (or “Cicada”), which has been a top variant of concern globally for a couple of months now, seems to be fairly quiet in the U.S. so far. According to publicly-shared sequencing data on GISAID and detections in wastewater, it is growing, but slowly, with more detections in the Northeast than in other regions.
Data are very limited, though, so it’s still unclear whether this variant will be a major factor in our expected summer wave. Regardless, I’m unsurprised to see cases potentially increasing in the South first, as this region had fewer cases last winter compared to the Midwest and Northeast, and faces more intense heat, driving people to gather indoors.
As we watch for further COVID-19 increases, another public health threat has emerged: a new Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Scientists and health officials are racing to contain the outbreak; it spread across hundreds of cases before it was detected and is caused by a rare Ebola strain, called Bundibugyo, which has no vaccines available. And U.S. aid cuts have made that work harder, the Washington Post reported last week. Like many other infections, Ebola can lead to chronic symptoms.
